Spurs 4 Arsenal 5
Browsing my archives this morning I was reminded of this extraordinary match back in November 2004. I have attached the chart for the draw on this match.
Local derbies are quite likely to throw up unlikely results, but this was way out there. Typically matches between two local teams are more likely to throw up much more level results over time. Local pride, bragging rights & historical encounters tend to make the underdog up it’s game in an effort not to be beaten. Not losing is sometimes more important than winning. Sometimes you do get some real outliers, though the detail can highlight slightly flattering results.
Fascinated by the local derby, quite a few years back I looked at various aspects of a local derby and found that the closer the two teams were to each other in distance there was indeed a correlation with the propensity to draw. But the most curious aspect of this was proving it by looking at negatively correlated teams. I.e. teams that were playing whose ground distance was largest. In turned out that there was a factor in there as well. Away teams who have a long drive time to opponents will slightly underperform in relation to teams a bit nearer. You have probably heard of the phrase ‘bogey team’; quite a few could be explained with this in mind. The correlation isn’t as clear as you would think, or like, though. As it is masked by current form, but it does exist. It also doesn’t mean that the market hasn’t priced it in, so that’s an important aspect as well.
Of course everybody is interested in the result today, but a lot of that seems to hinge on Arsenal’s ability to shackle Gareth Bale. If they can, they have a chance. But Spurs must surely fancy sticking seven points between themselves and Arsenal today. That would almost ensure they finish above them this season.
Really looking forward to seeing this match today!
Category: Football trading strategies
