Are Celtic better than a savings account?
When news came out that Rangers will start the Scottish season in divisions three, my head started spinning at all the permutations for next season. I always remember the fantastic Gretna, who rose from obscurity to become the punter and traders best friend, then promptly vanished as fast as they had risen.
In this case it’s almost the opposite. Rangers have been unceremoniously dumped from their elite status to the lower ranks of Scottish football. If Rangers can keep funded for a few years then it should be an interesting trek back to the top. William Hill are offering 12/1 for Rangers to win every single match in the 2012/13 season and 10/1 for them to go unbeaten between now and the end of 2014/15.
Back in the top flight there appears to be little realistic threat left now for Celtic and they are being priced between 1/25 to 1/40 to win the Scottish premier league. In other words you may have to put down £40 to win £1. I think this could be the shortest odds ever to win a mainstream European league? There isn’t much value outside of this year either, with William Hill offering an 1/18 that they will be celebrating three titles in a row. If you extend that to five titles in a row, William Hill will offer you 1/2.
It’s difficult to see where the opposition will come from in the next season so at 1/25, you would effectively get a 4% return on your capital if you want to place a bet and leave it there until next May. You would have to tie it up for a fair while though. If you pro-rata that to a year they your return is a little higher, better than a savings account. Of course that assumes they don’t slip up at all and that nothing changes in the outlook between now and then. Volatility in price isn’t the same as value, so at such short odds I will be looking for an opportunity to oppose that price. Whether I get the chance though is a different matter!
Category: Football trading strategies
