Champions league final

19/05/2012 | By More

Is Chelsea’s name written on the cup?

Before we start, don’t forget to have a play with Soccer Mystic the unique profiling tool contained within Bet Angel.

It never pays to be emotional about anything that you are trying to make money on, and you could be excused for looking for a fairy tale tonight. But the reality is that Chelsea have a tough ask this evening. On the flip side, as we have seen recently, anything can happen in 90 minutes (plus extra time) and, given their path to the final, Chelsea will believe anything is possible. We have seven players ruled out of the match, so that could make it a bit more open, but Chelsea will most likely shut up shop. It’s felt to me like Bayern Munich have been good value at some of the prices they have traded at, so I have taken advantage of that in the run up to the final.

I also had a look at the stats of similar matches: –

We found 160 matches that looked very similar. The market is discounting a 55.6% chance of a B Munich win, a 21.3% chance of a Chelsea win and a 23.8% chance of a draw. Our historical data shows that a match like this has produced, in the past, a 55% chance of a home win, a 19.4% chance of a away win and a 25.6% chance of a draw. This converts into odds of 1.82, 5.15 & 3.91 respectively.

The market is forecasting 2.67 goals. Historically there have been 2.8 goals in similar matches according to our database. The market is pricing over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.04. Historically 51.9% of similar matches ended over 2.5 goals which translates into digital odds of 1.93. This is hinting at back value in this market.

The ‘home’ team has scored at least one goal in 85% of matches. The ‘away’ team has scored at least one goal in 63.1% of matches. The ‘home’ team have scored two or more goals on 55.6% of occasions and three or more goals on 24.4% of occasions. The ‘away’ team have scored two or more goals on 24.4% of occasions and three or more goals on 7.5% of occasions. We are counting Chelsea as being the away team for the purpose of the data we are looking at.

There was an interesting post here, on whether that is the correct assumption or not.

If you are interested in studying a recent match with a similar set up that resulted in the outsider winning, you should look at Bournemouth vs Leyton Orient on the 14/2/2012. On the metrics I looked at, this had very similar characteristics. Since then however plenty of home wins and the occasional draw!

Because of the big volume expected before the off, I will be active and in the market for some time before the match starts. Hopefully that will produce a decent profit. I intend to watch the match with friends, but may dip into the market inplay if things get interesting. An early goal for either side could light up the match, but I suspect the Chelsea will be out to frustrate Bayern Munich to start with. I guess it may be too much to hope for more drama!

Fingers crossed for an exciting end to the domestic football season.

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Category: Football trading strategies

About the Author ()

I left a good job in the consumer technology industry to go a trade on Betfair for a living way back in June 2000. I've been here ever since pushing very boundaries of what's possible on betting exchanges and loved every minute of it.

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