Creative football trading
The great thing about football markets is that they are very predictable, in an unpredictable way!
Goals are few and far between and occur randomly but with bias throughout the match. But because there are so few goals on average, that makes it easy to figure out what you should do when one goes in. There are only a small number of combinations to work with.
Lots of people focus on just one match, research it to death and try and make a judgement on value; that’s fair enough. But often the market is ‘hyper efficient’ so value is tricky to find. Even if you can find it, it can take ages for the system to mature to a profit. Therefore one of the things I tend to do is spread my risk across many matches. This speeds up the maturity of the system I am deploying and gives me a better chance of a regular payoff.
For example, if we are looking to find a draw. In any one match there would be around a 30-35% of that roughly speaking. Taking the mid point we have a 67.5% chance of failing on any one match. If you widen your net to ten matches you create a 1.02 opportunity for finding a draw. You would be almost near certain to find one. Now, if you think about it, a draw during the match is more likely than at the end, so if you start mixing up that thought with a broader cover of matches you can start to see a strategy appear.
That is why we designed Bet Angel with extensive multi market capabilities. You can use Guardian, Excel and Automation to help you monitor or trade multiple matches with ease, even if you are busy trading something else. Even if you just use the multi market feature in Excel to create your own ‘console’ or unique view of the market, there are very useful tools.
Don’t forget you can do all this in practice mode as well. Enjoy!
Category: Football trading strategies, Using Bet Angel
