06/04/2011 | By More

Barcelona are priced for an easy win against Shakhtar and I can’t see beyond that. Barca will want to put this to bed comprehensively in the first leg. However, there are decent trades available for this scenario. Goals give you plenty of scope to hedge good set ups.

Last night’s legs were uncompetitive and the return legs look a formality now, which is a shame. The same can’t be said of tonights showdown at Stamford Bridge. I would have priced in a very tight match with little to either side but the market has priced it like two teams of equal ability but with home advantage to Chelsea. So your decision should centre on whether you feel that this is like a normal league fixture, I’d argue not.

If you look at matches where Chelsea are priced in a similar manner to tonight, then the last eight read WWLDDDDW. In these matches Chelsea have not scored more than two goals and the match hasn’t contained three goals once. Will either team risk it tonight? I doubt it, a Chelsea goal will see Man Utd try to stop conceding another and a Man Utd goal will see them shut up shop. Advantage Ferguson.

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Category: Football trading strategies

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I left a good job in the consumer technology industry to go a trade on Betfair for a living way back in June 2000. I've been here ever since pushing very boundaries of what's possible on betting exchanges and loved every minute of it.

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