Super Bowl off to a slow start?
It’s not often we trade on the NFL, but amid all the hype, how could we not mention it? Super Bowl XLV kicks off on Sunday evening in what promises to be a fascinating contest between the Green Bay Packers and the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The total points market is always one of interest and this year promises to be no different with Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger occupying the quarterback positions. The over/under points total is set at 45.5 (I seem to remember points spread being set at a huge 55-58 last year) and traders might be interested to note the highest total over the past eight years is 69 points, when Tampa Bay destroyed the Oakland Raiders in 2003.
In the past eight Bowls the average total is 48 points. One factor to consider is that the Packers and Steelers have two of the most feared defences in the NFL.
From a trading perspective, the trends point to a clear strategy. Super Bowls often start slowly. Only twice in eight years (2010 and 2007) has there been more than six points scored in the opening quarter. The average first quarter points total during that period is just 5.1 points. So, back under points / lay over points and reverse around the start of the second quarter. Both quarterbacks have put up good numbers all season, so the points should flow as defences start to tire.
Category: Alternative markets
