Two horse race

02/05/2010 | By More

So the premiership has narrowed to a two horse race to the line. Chelsea meet Liverpool and Wigan, while Man Utd mean Sunderland and Stoke. On the face of it Chelsea’s 1 point advantage looks tight but when I ran through all the possible combinations and, on average, the one point advantage should be enough to win it. Of course it really hinges on the result at Liverpool, so that really is the championship decider. That match is going to make compelling viewing.

I was thinking of posting up the stats, but its a big spreadsheet with lots of varitions and averaging etc. So I don’t think it’s easy enough to explain. But, there are eighteen paths to follow by the look of it but only four of those can result in Man Utd winning the premiership. For exanple Chelsea not to win on Sunday and Man Utd to win comes in at a 33% chance but for neither to win the next match is only a 4% chance. Basically, whichever way you cut it, Chelsea should do it, on average. You can’t help but thinking though, that at 1.58 to win the championship and with an away trip to Liverpool, it just doesn’t seem value does it?

1.57 says the title is mine Fergie, grazie

1.58 says the title is mine Fergie, grazie

Tags: , ,

Category: Using Bet Angel

About the Author ()

I left a good job in the consumer technology industry to go a trade on Betfair for a living way back in June 2000. I've been here ever since pushing very boundaries of what's possible on betting exchanges and loved every minute of it.

Comments are closed.