Retrograde motion
Have a look at the England match last night and you could see a classic bit of why the market is efficient, but it isn’t. Immediately after the first England goal it was quite possible to back the draw and see it come in a fair bit. A fair bit as far as the odds were concerned, but not much in implied probability, around 2.5%.
The price on the draw came in after the first goal and this is contrary to what the stats would say, the stats would say the draw would get much less likely, not more. But this actually happens quite often around pivotal points in the market. The reason last night was that Belarus did not lose their shape after that early goal, but kept possession and controlled a lot of the first half. Therefore the market was discounting the possibility they may score. You can’t forecast that ahead of a match, but you can monitor the in play stats to get a better idea of what is happening when it is underway. That’s what I recommend, make your judgement before the match starts but play close attention once it’s underway. I’m already looking forward to a busy summer next year!
Category: Using Bet Angel
