Lay the draw – Betfair trading strategy
One of the most well-known Betfair trading strategies, Lay the Draw, has been around almost since the day the Betfair exchange was launched yet it continues to remain very popular especially among new Betfair traders.
In its simplest form lay the draw trading requires you do just that! Often the draw is layed just before KO or during the half time break usually if it still 0-0 or 1-1 with the view of greening up for a profit after a goal is scored and the draw price has risen. Because your opening position is a lay bet, this is only something you can do on a betting exchange.
Like most of these type of football trading strategies, turning a profit in the long term comes down to the right football match selection. There are many pieces of information you can use to find suitable markets to lay the draw either pre KO or during the match. But one thing you can’t dig out of stats, which is a very important part of making a profit from laying the draw long term, is how far and in what direction will the draw odds move when that goal is scored.
This is dependent on two key factors, the current odds of the two teams playing and how much time is remaining in the match otherwise known as the time decay.
Lay the draw examples
If a match has a strong odds-on fav the draw odds would actually shorten if the underdog scored the opening goal in the first half. This is because the probability of a draw now increases. So in a match like this, you will only be able to lay the draw and green up for a profit after a goal if the favourite scores first.
However, if it gets to half time and it’s still 0-0 then the draw price will have shortened a bit and the fav’s price will have drifted. But as there is now less time for the fav to get back into a match if they concede the first goal, laying the draw now could see a profit secured no matter who scores he first goal – again this is dependent on the current odds.
With time and experience, you will be able to make some half decent guesses of where the odds will move to following a goal. You would base this on the current prices of each team and the time left to play. For those who are new to trading or looking at this strategy for the first time, this puts you at a disadvantage over others as it means you can’t accurately assess if laying the draw is a good idea at this time of the match.
Display Predicted Odds on your Ladder
There is a way to derive the draw odds following a goal. Using Betfair trading software like Bet Angel you also have the tools and options to display what the Predicted draw odds will be following the next goal regardless of which team scores on your ladder screen.
You can see in the Pre-off image above this match has a fairly strong home fav, should you lay the draw now and the fav scores first early in the match the draw price is only likely to rise a to 3.8 (about 5 ticks), whereas if the away underdog scores first the price of the draw will shoot out to 6.4, nearly double what you lay at.
Even if you are not laying the draw at the start of the match, and instead are looking for an opportunity at half time or any other time during the match based on what you’re seeing unfold on the pitch or in-play stats the predicted draw price displayed in Bet Angel will continually change and update as the match progresses and time decays so you always have a good idea of how a goal will impact the price.
In the next image taken at HT if you layed the draw now and the home team were to score first the draw price would be around 3.15 an away goal first and the price would be around 8.0 so no matter who scores first.
How it Works
This is done by using two simple rules file that will continually trigger and store the draw prices from the +1 markets, (effectively these are handicap markets priced as though a team has one goal more than they currently have), basically they give a glimpse into the future on how the match odds market will reform following the next goal. Those stored prices are then displayed on your ladder screen.
You then need to configure your ladder settings so that it can display these stored values.
Don’t worry if it sounds a bit complicated, everything is already done for you, both the rules files and the ladder settings have already been created for you, all you need to do is download and import them into your Bet Angel from the bottom of the following forum post and you’re ready to go.
Using the Betfair automation Files
Display Predicted Draw Odds – this is a ladder settings file and needs to be imported into your ladder settings area.
Draw Odds Predictor (Home) & Draw Odds Predictor (Away) – these are the rules files and need to be imported into your Guardian.
Once you have imported them into your Bet Angel simply select the Match Odds and the home team +1 and away team +1 markets for each fixture you want to trade and add those markets to Guardian then apply the rules as follows;
Draw Odds Predictor (Home) – This is a basic rules file and needs to be applied to the home team +1 market in Guardian.
Draw Odds Predictor (Away) – Identical to the above rule but needs to be stored to the away team +1 market in Guardian.
For example, the first fixture is in the Guardian image below is Ludogorets Vs Inter.
So, the Draw Odds Predictor (Away) file is applied to Inter +1 market (because Inter are the away team).
And the Draw Odds Predictor (Home) file is applied to Ludogorets +1 market (because Ludogorets are the home team).
And that’s it, once you open the match odds market of that fixture the predicted draw odds following a goal will be displayed above your ladders allowing you to decide if and when it’s the right time to lay the draw.