Tag: tactics
What’s working in Euro 2016
As we move into the knockout stage, let’s review what’s happened in the Euro’s so far from a market perspective.
Turnover
The first thing to note is that the volumes are down a fair bit from Euro 2012 on Betfair. In 2012 in the group stages the lowest turnover match was £7.7m before the off and £17.8m at the end of the match. This year it was a paltry £1.6m and £3.3m, slightly lower than in 2012! I think it’s …
Tactical football trading
As is well publicised, I started my odyssey in sports when I was very young, analysing footy matches looking for draws.
I still endlessly search for new information, a quest to find something that hasn’t been found before. To give you some hope if you are doing the same, I am always finding new things. Sometimes by looking for something else.
I recently revisited how a football match unfolds and if there was information contain in the first half stats …
A question of scale (part three)
Click on the text for part one and part two
Curiously for some, it is actually quite easy to work out the maximum upside you can get in any market over time, that’s a definite calculable variable. See my previous blog post ‘profit exists everywhere’. You can also do the same for losses. When you look at those stats, you suddenly realise that the market is capped in either direction. That has advantages and disadvantages.
But the ‘market capped’ thing …
Losers needed!
Over the years I’ve studied the markets and a number of strategies, but all of these have been focused on winning.
Late last year I turned my attention to why people lose, the psychology behind that, but also what fundamental flaws they have with their approaches in the market.
If you mess around at random you should, over long periods, break even less the spread or commission that you pay to the service provider. However, when I look at a …
Satisfying chaos
OK, yesterday didn’t seem that chaotic in the end, just a bit frustrating. I had to wait ages to find races that really set themselves up nicely, but eventually I did and they were OK. But it was a little dull overall.
Kauto Star lit up the day when I took a few races off to watch the King George VI produce a bit of history. What a great horse we have been treated to and it looks like we …
Back to open
It looks like we are going to have some fun and games in the market today. I’d recommend adopting a ‘back to open’ trading policy!
For more information read up on this thread: –
https://www.betangel.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=4934&start=240
Give your football 150% this weekend
I love those throw away phrases where people say they are going to give it 150%. Of course you can only give it 100%, or can you? Not when trading.
In a betting market the market is framed at 100%. A football team can only win, lose or draw a match. There is a 100% chance of that happening. But when trading, you are trading how volatile those odds will be and that is always over 100%, whatever sport you …
Lay the draw – automatically
Last week we backed the draw using the new automation feature in Bet Angel, this week we lay it.
Whether you use the new feature to implement something or test an idea, it’s a powerful tool to do either. Based on immediate feedback we have expanded the number of conditions you can apply to your automation which expand your capability further. Bear in mind that using the practice mode you can play around without risking any money and by using …
Bombs away
Every now and again in the racing market an individual arrives that doesn’t make much sense. From a trading perspective at least!
The come into the market and back a selection for a large amount of money, then back again and again and again! I’m not sure the oft quoted description of ‘mad bomber’ is accurate, maybe there is a better description. But what is certain is the impact they have on the market. You could view this as a …
Important Information
Well day 3/6 on jinx week has passed without catastrophe. Yesterday wasn’t a great day by any means and I really fouled up on one race, but I’m still moving ahead on the week and hope for a better day today.
I’m always experimenting and there is no better way of doing that than directly in the market itself. I will always recommend this, as it’s the best way to really know what is really happening and how your actions …
Gambling millions
Give me five minutes with somebody and I can teach you how to put through enormous sums through a market at relatively little risk, you wont make or lose much, but you will be able to say that you gambled millions that day, an impressive feat; or is it?
I have often been misquoted, especially when it comes to numbers. But one thing that is fairly certain in the modern betting age, is that racking up bets in the millions …
Accidents and evolution (Part three)
Never one for rhetoric; I presented a similar case, to those I have described in the prior posts, at a talk I did last year. Using a similar model we followed how that can evolve from a base set of criteria and environments to something more complex. The following two snap shots are from a control where we work at random and an evolved model a few generations on.
Here we are using £2 at random
Here we use an
…
Accidents and evolution (Part two)
So how did my view on evolution, natural selection and Darwin translate into market strategy?
There are many ways to apply it, but first you need to start. Your first strategy is to have no strategy, just poke around at random. This gives you a control sample to work with, a base metric from which you can build your activity. You should regularly revisit your control to ensure the base you are working from is still the same as when …
Accidents and evolution (Part one)
Some time ago, when I was young, I was accosted by somebody on the streets of Guildford. He was trying to challenge my view of the world and get me to sign up to their cult or something. He followed me down the street and asked me if I really believed the world, everything we see, was created by accident. Without hesitation I replied, YES!
When I was young I had asked myself the same question. So I went to …
Good start to Tennis season
In preparation for the Aussie open Tennis later this month I have been warming up on the Qatar open this week.
Best of three tournaments mean that the swings you can get can be very large and quick. If a heavy odds on favourite slips up or stutters, the response in the market will often be significant.
One of my favourite tactics, that I detailed here, is to lay a very short priced favourite in the hope that they …
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