Tag: system
How to lay £600m worth of bets on Betfair?
That has to be the #1 question after yesterdays debacle in one of the feature races at Leopardstown.
To summarise, a mysterious lay bet appeared and stayed on the winning favourite at 29’s right up to the finish of the race. The ‘layer’ offered up £21m at 29’s creating a £600m liability. Betfair voided the in-running market.
Betfair have come out officially and ruled out that it was them or any account controlled by them or that they had a …
Accidents and evolution (Part three)
Never one for rhetoric; I presented a similar case, to those I have described in the prior posts, at a talk I did last year. Using a similar model we followed how that can evolve from a base set of criteria and environments to something more complex. The following two snap shots are from a control where we work at random and an evolved model a few generations on.
Here we are using £2 at random
Here we use an
…
Accidents and evolution (Part two)
So how did my view on evolution, natural selection and Darwin translate into market strategy?
There are many ways to apply it, but first you need to start. Your first strategy is to have no strategy, just poke around at random. This gives you a control sample to work with, a base metric from which you can build your activity. You should regularly revisit your control to ensure the base you are working from is still the same as when …
Accidents and evolution (Part one)
Some time ago, when I was young, I was accosted by somebody on the streets of Guildford. He was trying to challenge my view of the world and get me to sign up to their cult or something. He followed me down the street and asked me if I really believed the world, everything we see, was created by accident. Without hesitation I replied, YES!
When I was young I had asked myself the same question. So I went to …
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