Tag: federer
Federer vs Nadal
Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer will continue their great rivalry tomorrow when they meet for the 11th time on a Grand Slam stage.
It should be an interesting match, but I thought the quarter between Murray and Federer would be as well, but that didn’t turn out to be so blockbusting. I’ve had a quiet Aussie open. Some decent results but less active than last year while I’ve been working on some key projects. The early mornings were too much …
Why we have a Federer fail
Lots of press this morning about the ‘shock’ exit of Roger Federer in the US Open. But, as I have posted before, Federer is definitely in the twilight of his career. As a middle aged man, much as I hate to admit it, 32 is old in sporting terms. In Tennis, players turn pro at an average age of 18 and retire at 32, Federer is 32.
I love analysing all sorts of things to spot, and more importantly, anticipate …
Murray might
Reason to look forward to this afternoon’s gold medal Tennis match with optimism.
Age – Murray is younger than Federer and Federer, despite his world #1 ranking, is in decline. Just very gradual and from a very high peak. Murray is approaching his peak and when players peak anything is possible. Both players are on the process of converging.
Format – Murray got of to a great start at Wimbledon and flew out of the blocks before Federer used his …
Bumps and ripples
What can you tell about a Tennis match before it has started? Quite a lot actually.
The market is pretty accurate at discounting value into a match and assessing the relative strengths of different players, from that you can plot the most likely path through a match and its progression. You can also hunt for bumps and ripples in that path for odds that are most likely to be reached and how. If you do this, you will see that …
Awesome match
At last, a real classic match to talk about at the US Open. Djokovic through to the final after defeating Federer, again, in the semi final from two match points down. A great trading match as well, with some clear cut entry and exit points.
Federer loses French Open final
I’ve deliberately titled this post in a manner that is completely dissimilar to the current headlines out there. Well done to Nadal winning the French open; but if you look at the flow of the match from a statistical viewpoint, it was more like Federer who actually lost it in my opinion.
It was a fairly tight match, till the last set at least, 7-5, 7-6, 5-7, 6-1. You would expect the younger player of the two to do better …
Busy day
Looking forward to a busy day today.
Promotion and relegation battles will be settled on the football pitches today, that always throws up opportunities. There is nothing like career death to focus the mind of a highly paid footballer. I’m looking for an outside chance today. I’ll probably spread around my options to even things out. Did you know that Bet Angel can monitor and fire in bets across multiple markets almost simultaneously? This is ideal for football where matches …
Good start to Tennis season
In preparation for the Aussie open Tennis later this month I have been warming up on the Qatar open this week.
Best of three tournaments mean that the swings you can get can be very large and quick. If a heavy odds on favourite slips up or stutters, the response in the market will often be significant.
One of my favourite tactics, that I detailed here, is to lay a very short priced favourite in the hope that they …
Conclusions from a busy weekend
Blackpool got off to a flyer but are still my favourites for a return to the Championship. No spending power, no ground, no way to attract premiership talent. I think 1.20 was skinny and difficult to find value for relegation but if the price drifts a bit it will be more interesting. I remember, eons ago, Millwall getting off to a flyer in the old division one and they topped the table for a while but were still relegated. I …
What a start!
Wimbledon got off to an amazing start with a near shock elinimation of Federer. In the last ten years there have been lots of seeds falling early, but never the top seed. Reading from the year 2000 we had ranked players going out in the first round as follows. 7,16,9,2,12,11,6,22,4 and 17. Basically, anything is worth a lay. OK the odds at the off are probably an accurate representation of true chance of winning, but from there anything can happen …
Tennis trading lessons
A couple of neat lessons were served up by the Tennis yesterday and both showed that statistics don’t always give you the key to actually understanding what is going on in the underlying market.
First we had the Federer match. Struggling with a vibrant opponent you could have counted Federer out for the count, but a revealing post match interview revealed what was going through his head at 2-6 1-3 down. Federer commented on how the sun was bothering him …
Federer crashes out
With Nadal and Federer losing at the Montreal Masters, Andy Murray now has a great chance to pop up one place in the rankings to world number two.
Federer’s match was quite remarkable being two breaks up and 5-1 up in the final set, but still losing. Scott did a good post on the market on his blog. At 5-1 up in the final set I calculated his odds at 99.7% or basically 1.00, so no particular value …
Classic final underway?
Odds on Federer after losing the first set
Currently watching some great tennis this morning at the Aussie open in Melbourne. I’d be happy to hit just one of these shots when I play tennis, let alone on each stroke. It’s generating some great trading opportunities as well. Unfortunately I have promised to take the kids swimming so I am likely to miss out.
As an example, when Nadal broke Federer in the first set the price moved out a …
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