Author Archive: Peter Webb
I left a good job in the consumer technology industry to go a trade on Betfair for a living way back in June 2000.
I've been here ever since pushing very boundaries of what's possible on betting exchanges and loved every minute of it.
Premium charge anniversary
It seems to have slipped quietly into the background, but in September last year we saw the announcement of the premium charge. After the furore of last year, there seems little fuss to ‘celebrate’ the anniversary. Maybe there really are only a few payers of the charge?
For my part, Betfair was an easy sell in the past. Get better odds and trade sports like financial markets. But the premium charge muddied that message somewhat. I think the post by …
Iffy the comeback
I think I may have to buy this horse, I follow it’s fortunes so often. It ran, yes that’s right, it ran, this evening at Kempton. It has such a dodgy record for running I had my finger poised but it actually managed to race tonight. Maybe it’s something to do with longer races that it doesn’t like? Anyhow, for the record, here is its record: –
https://www.gg.com/racing/horseform.php/iffy-gb/3710.html
Greyhounds
Popped into the Greyhound markets last night. My interest was that Betfair were sponsoring it last night and I thought that may add some liquidity and make it worthwhile. Trading the dogs isn’t like the horses, it’s much more volatile but it generally works in a similar way and similar styles can apply.
I never get a massive amount out of the dogs but it can add a bit to the day. The funny thing about last night was the …
Return on turnover
While I’m in the mood let’s talk about return on turnover as well. I’ve tracked my return on turnover for some time as I feel this is the key to sustaining longevity in the market. It also tells you a lot about trading.
Adam Heathcote recently put up a spreadsheet sent by Betfair detailing how much he had turned over and earned this year. On this sheet is shows that Adam’s return on turnover was 0.17%. If you wind the …
Strike rates
I know I have got all excited about strike rates recently but….. I must insert some an important caveat when addressing strike rates in general, not all strikes rates are created equally.
If I get a monkey, I can give him a set up that gets him a 50% strike rate, not hard. With the same monkey I can increase this to 80-90% by tweaking some parameters. There is a simple trade, which requires more than monkey like intelligence, that …
Man Utd time
Couldn’t help but watch the Manchester Derby. Man United desperately needed a late goal at home and guess what, the officials managed to find nearly seven minutes of extra time to allow Man Utd the best possible chance to score. Has this happened before I ask?
The average extra time added is around three minutes. So seven minutes is right at the far end of the bell curve, given that it represents 15% extra time in the half. But what …
Early bird doesn’t catch the worm!
Hmmm, bit hacked off this morning. Up very early to look at the Aussie group racing. Did a nice trade at Caulfield only to see my profit wiped out in a manner I hadn’t seen in the UK.
As the race started two horses reared and one chucked it’s jockey in the stalls. In the UK that would have just been tough luck, but the stewards in Aus called one or both non runners, not quite sure what they have …
Writers block
A case of writers block is on the cards. I recently agreed to start writing for another magazine, the first article will be published next month.
While writing to national press standards is demanding, I do quite enjoy it as it makes me feel I have left some legacy from all my participation and research on the markets, this is why I talk about my work also. It would be a huge waste to never document or talk about a …
Minimax theorem
I bumped into this when I was studying game theory a long time ago. I recently revisited this again and it prompted me to put a post up on my blog for people who had not looked at the benefits of optimal play in a game, especially in a zero sum game. Very often people follow completely the wrong path for psychological reasons and minimax can help you make roughly the right decisions. For a primer, have a look at …
US Open Tennis
Last night rounded off a great US Open for traders. With an unseeded player winning the womens, defeating the two Williams on the way and Federer losing the mens final, it’s been a great tournament. Federer was around 1.30’s to win last night but that looked under pressure when a call was overturned by Hawkeye and the match seemed to turn from that point. I think that the last grand slam has probably been the best trading fodder all year, …
Nice screenshot
Somebody emailed me another nice images of a Bet Angel screen posted on a blog. View the image by clicking on this text, it’s too wide to put on the blog.
You can see three advanced charts on the left, you can user define the size, shape and data displayed on the advanced charting. Next you see the three ladders with full market depth. Then you have the market overview charting scaled to show the front of the field …
Bizarre finish in US open
Serving to save the match at 15-40 Serena williams explodes and hands the match to Clijsters. Never seen that before. Unfortunately, I was at a wedding reception and missed last nights matches but caught up this morning. Remarkable come back so far by Clijsters! I’m pleased to see Wozniaki in the final as I earmarked her a little while ago as one to watch. Still recovering from a late night so I haven’t really looked in any depth at anything …
Record run ends..
Well it had to stop sooner or later and it turned out to be sooner! I had tr0uble getting anything decent out of Chester all day and it was that race meeting that stopped my run at 82 in row, with a frustrating loss early on in the day. I ended up just failing to break even on the race, losing less than £1 but it was enough to stop the winning run. I could have laid something in-running to …
New record
As I have previously stated, my strike has gone up quite a bit recently. One practical upshot of this is that I just set a new record for consecutive winning trades!
When I sit down to trade the first race of the day today I will have successfully traded the previous 70 races without a single loss. My previous best was set back in October 2007 at 66. I hope that I can push the forward again today but it …
US Open tennis
I tend to perform better in the early parts of tournaments as I benefit exponentially from shocks. Also, as the tournament progresses, its easier to make mistakes in close matches. One thing that has caught my eye is the rain delayed match from last night. I think the Gonzalez / Nadal match has the possibility of throwing up some interesting characteristics when they return.
I have always been a fan of taking a position during enforced breaks or initiating one …
Semenya tests as ‘inter gender’
Breaking news this morning that tests on Semenya confirm that she has some inter gender / hermaphroditic condition. Looks like this story, like Semenya, is going to run and run. It’s a terrible situation to be in really isn’t it, for the individual involved and for sport. Anyhow, full story here: –
https://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/athletics/8249948.stm
St. Leger so far
Things seem to be going OK this week, better than I expected. The Doncaster markets are a bit jumpy but by and large I am pulling in some steady but unspectacular results. My strike rate continues to improve and in the last 106 races I have lost in only 7.
Yesterday was fair, but acceptable and we still have the two biggest days coming up today and tomorrow, so that should help get to a good week. That said the …
St. Leger meeting
I must admit, from a trading perspective, I haven’t got a great deal out of this meeting in the past. I’m sort of hoping that this year will be different but I’m not setting high expectations to only be disappointed. This month has started well and my strike rate is still climbing so I’d like to hold onto that and see if I can get a good result.
My only advice, given the prior years, is to take things a …
Not playing tonight
No activity from me this evening as it’s my fourteenth wedding anniversary and we are out for a posh meal and some pampering. Traditional musings say this is an Ivory anniversary, but modern says Gold so it looks like a Spandau Ballet single is in order, LOL!
Just a quick post on the England vs Croatia game.
I reckon the odds should be 1.61 England, 7.20 Croatia and 4.1 the Draw.
Current market prices are similar but too short on …
Iffy start…. again!
Being a non horse racing type its always something interesting when I can identify a horse by name. I can’t understand how many chances this horse is going to get. It refused to race again today.
Murray mullered
Andy Murray was completely outclassed this evening in New York. Cilic dominated the match to win in three straight sets and fairly easily. Despite only have a first serve percentage of around 30% in the second set, Cilic still dominated a poor Murray to cruise to victory. The warning signs were there from the off and the second set confirmed Murray’s error strewn display.
Even after taking the first set you could still Lay murray at 1.30’s and he never …
There is some value in that
I’ve often used this phrase and others often use this phrase, mainly incorrectly, so I felt I should qualify what it means!
Simply backing or laying something ‘Because it is value’ just isn’t good enough. If we see something priced at 1.50 and we think is should be priced at 1.20 there is clearly defined value, 30% in fact. We could feel pretty confident about putting some decently money on that. While it may not win this time, doing it …
Simple scalping
We uploaded this video recently and it has proved pretty popular so I thought I would put this on the blog. It’s just a simple guide to the thought process that goes into a simple scalp. On this video we get £40 gross with a couple of quick scalps on something priced at 6’s. Double click the video to enlarge. Enjoy…
Fallon Friday
I think this is how I will note today in the diary. All the Fallon races showed a lot of activity and while I couldn’t get each one right, it turned out the moves in the market were so strong you only need to get one right to make a useful total. It will be interesting to see if this carries on tomorrow. RUK quoted 6/4 for Fallong to get a winner today, didn’t happen and never looked likely IMHO.…
Friday Fallon fireworks
I expected the return of Kieren Fallon to produce some renewed betting interest in the markets this afternoon but it’s been a real surprise to see how much movement there has been. This isn’t directly Fallon related but it’s been one of the most swing oriented starts to the day I have seen in a while, with big moves right across the card.
The Fallon races have produced massive drifts on the first two rides this afternoon. The market seems …
Customise your trading
One of the capabilities that has been built into Bet Angel for a long time is the ability to dock, undock and resize a whole raft of screens, functions and tools.
I browse across the blogs often and came across this nice screenshot from Cran, a Bet Angel user. I think it demonstrates a neat set up that demonstrates this capability. Basically you can see three ladders on the right and the market overview on the left but re-sized to …
US Open Tennis
When I have a look at a Tennis match I am always looking for where the biggest potential upside is. Tennis is scored in such a manner that reversals in fortune occur with quite remarkable regularity. With these reversals come very sharp movements in odds. Bartoli vs Clijsters is a good example from yesterday evening, after the racing!
Clijsters started at 1.30ish (I missed the exact start) and as Bartoli grew in confidence Clijsters price moved all the way out …
Renaissance
August turned out to be a great month for me, building on a solid July. It was right up there with some of the best weeks and months I’ve had. The good thing is, I know why.
If you keep good records, you can monitor and improve your performance and that alone is worth its weight in gold. On top of that, if you actively monitor performance and see a decline, you have the means to address that.
Late last …
Laytown
Sounds like a small town where people favour only one side of the book. But in fact its a racecourse in Ireland.
This race course captivates me each year. When I am better organised and have more time on my hands, I might go and visit the course for the racing one day. It’s obviously something to do with the sea, sand and the s…………..starting post that draws me to the venue. I said last year I would go, but …
Monday Madness
It’s that time of year again, the weather in the UK is rubbish so it must be a public holiday.
Today brings us nine race cards and seven in the UK. All the races in the UK are scheduled to go off 5 minutes after another. On loading them into Guardian this morning I noticed that Huntingdon is likely to clash with Newcastle and Cartmel with Ripon, so bear that in mind. Of course, if one course has a problem …
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