Trading the Newmarket Guineas

This weekend sees the first real big trading market of the flat turf season, the Newmarket Guineas.

This year we are faced with a rather odd build up to the big race, but the interest in the first ‘Classic’ of the season is still high and it should be a big betting market.

A Guinea is old money for 21 shillings or £1.05. So in effect with the current level of prize money for the 2000 Guineas, it really should be called something more than the 2000 Guineas! If you want some history on horse racing, then Newmarket is UK horse racings HQ and if you are nearby it’s worth popping into the national heritage centre for horseracing and sporting art.

I’ve always enjoyed the Guineas meeting and have had some fun and game over the years on it. It’s the first classic of the flat turf season for the horse racing markets and an opportunity to get some big race practice in ahead of the other big races out there.

There are always a ton of ways to partipate in the big races thanks to trading software like Bet Angel.

Newmarket Guineas Turnover

On the Betfair exchange, The amount of money that gets traded at the big meetings is huge. The level of interest in the betting market tends to drive the trading market. The Newmarket 2000 Guineas has averaged just under £4m on the betting exchange over the last ten years or so. Sports traders tend to prefer high liquid markets, so meetings like this are welcome. The most recent peak is way back in 2010, it’s not performed as well since then. Even in 2011 when Frankel was an incredibly short 1.59 to win it only managed £3.5m. In hindsight, Frankel was a bargain at those prices!

I’ve no doubt however that the general level of betting interest in this market will drive some new Betfair account openings, some offers will encourage matched betting, the odd free bet or two will be created and perhaps some new inductees to horse racing.

From a Betfair trading perspective, it’s big. But not as massive as some of the other meetings, but worth a fair amount of effort. The 1000 Guineas is on Sunday and as with most Sunday racing will come in much lower. Historically it has matched around 60% of the big race, but is still worth a shot. There shouldn’t be much price movement on the big race itself

Betfair trading outlook

Being a full time trader and market veteran, I feel I have underperformed for the last few years. If you have been around for some time it’s tough to really perform at the highest level or hit new heights. For that to happen you need all things to slot into place perfectly to get the result you are really looking for. I still haven’t beaten my total from 2010 when just that happened, and I walked away with a decent result from the race and for the entire the day. The total you see is all pre race trading on a number of horse racing markets, not just the Guineas, but it was a cracking day.

But back to this year and we find a less competitive race than usual. That will probably result in slightly higher turnover than average, so it should lend itself to stronger more definitive moves. I’ll be using much larger stakes to take advantage of that, but as always you have to treat each market as you see it, not how you predict it!

There are much larger gaps between race at the meeting this year and that should results in a longer, more steady build up in volume. So I’m especially keen to see how that manifest itself tomorrow. The set up looks really good, but we will have to see how the market behaves after such a long absence. Even after trading all this week, I’m still not certain I can predict exactly how the Guineas will trade this year, but it looks a good set up.

My views on the trading conditions haven’t varied that much over the years so I’ve added a previous video which you can view, so watch that if you want a narrated view on the market.

Best of luck, whatever you are doing.

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