It’s the Chester May festival this week and it’s a welcome addition to the card, but based on previous years it’s nothing amazing from a trading viewpoint.
Obviously, we all love some extra liquidity that the quality racing will bring, but it’s never been a meeting that I’ve got really good amounts from.
Don’t get the wrong impression, ‘not really good amounts’ means I’m not banging in three-figure results a race. Just the odd one or two a day has been my historic result with generally better than average results overall.
In general, you should see improvement in traded volumes and general trading conditions. You will often see this in the summer, you alternate between good quality races and poor quality races. The significance is that there will be more money and interest in the better quality stuff. That, usually, feeds through to the markets in general.
You should be focusing on picking up some good results at the larger meetings so you can pick and choose your targets on the lower quality stuff. This is a good risk management strategy from a trading perspective.
Draw bias at Chester
The thing to note about Chester is its draw bias, which is one of the more significant in the UK.
When you get a strong draw bias it will radically affect the way a market trades in play. A favourite with a favourable bias should ‘hose up’. But with an unfavourable draw, it will most likely have to work hard to turn over similar horses with a more favourable draw. This can lead to horses trading quite low in play, but still getting beaten as the favourite nips them near the finishing post.
From a trading perspective the draw bias can be signficant pre-off as if there is a regular set of winners coming in from low draws that may spark further interest in these runners later on in the card.
The reason the draw bias exists at places like Chester is due to the tight nature of the course, it’s very ‘curvy’. Compare this to a straight course when the horse doesn’t need to be steered around the corner or run extra distance compared to somebody that is holding a favourable position on the rails.
It can make a huge difference and if you haven’t experianced this before it’s something that should get your attention at Chester.
If you are interested in trading in-running and taking advantage of the draw bias, you should check out Bet Angel’s ‘in play trader’. It’s a very useful tool for trading in running. The way odds are presented visually will allow you to take advantage of a front-running horse or a weakening favourite. You can see the market adjusting it’s view some way out and with the click of a mouse you can click in front of the horse to back it or behind to lay it. It’s a neat way to trade these fast-moving markets.
Good luck at Chester.