{"id":9298,"date":"2013-12-06T19:33:28","date_gmt":"2013-12-06T19:33:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.betangel.com\/blog_wp\/?p=9298"},"modified":"2013-12-06T19:33:28","modified_gmt":"2013-12-06T19:33:28","slug":"how-the-world-cup-draw-affected-your-teams-chance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/2013\/12\/06\/how-the-world-cup-draw-affected-your-teams-chance\/","title":{"rendered":"How did the world cup draw affect your teams chance?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Money talks and as the World Cup draw was made, the market moved as people discounted a favorable or unfavorable draws. But for whom and how much?<\/p>\n

The big winners were Argentina as the market shifted nearly 4% in their favour. Was England’s draw so bad? They slipped from 28 to 30 in decimal odds, only an decline of 0.25% in implied probability terms. They had little change, they have slightly less. Spain suffered the most as their chance of winning dropped over 1% from 8.2 to 9 in decimal odds. But you can also add Brazil and the Netherlands as having equally ‘bad’ luck. But of course Brazil can console themselves as they are still the favorites with just under a 22.2% chance of winning on home soil.<\/p>\n

Here is the full before and after list of the draw, ranked by order of change, positive to negative: –<\/p>\n

Argentina From 6.8 to 6 a change of 3.85%
\nFrance From 23 to 24 a change of 1.23%
\nBelgium From 18.5 to 17 a change of 0.48%
\nColombia From 25 to 24 a change of 0.46%
\nSwitzerland From 150 to 110 a change of 0.24%
\nRussia From 100 to 85 a change of 0.18%
\nEcuador From 170 to 150 a change of 0.17%
\nIvory Coast From 190 to 180 a change of 0.1%
\nBosnia From 200 to 210 a change of 0.09%
\nNigeria From 350 to 320 a change of 0.01%
\nJapan From 180 to 190 a change of 0%
\nSouth Korea From 520 to 510 a change of 0%
\nAlgeria From 1000 to 1000 a change of 0%
\nIran From 1000 to 1000 a change of 0%
\nHonduras From 1000 to 1000 a change of 0%
\nCosta Rica From 1000 to 1000 a change of 0%
\nGreece From 330 to 360 a change of -0.01%
\nAustralia From 660 to 810 a change of -0.03%
\nCameroon From 750 to 1000 a change of -0.03%
\nMexico From 140 to 150 a change of -0.05%
\nUruguay From 27 to 30 a change of -0.11%
\nPortugal From 38 to 40 a change of -0.13%
\nUSA From 200 to 300 a change of -0.17%
\nCroatia From 220 to 270 a change of -0.19%
\nGhana From 260 to 270 a change of -0.22%
\nEngland From 28 to 30 a change of -0.24%<\/strong>
\nItaly From 29 to 30 a change of -0.67%
\nChile From 42 to 60 a change of -0.71%
\nGermany From 7.8 to 7.2 a change of -0.82%
\nNetherlands From 34 to 30 a change of -1.01%
\nBrazil From 4.3 to 4.5 a change of -1.03%
\nSpain From 8.2 to 9 a change of -1.08%<\/p>\n

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Money talks and as the World Cup draw was made, the market moved as people discounted a favorable or unfavorable draws. But for whom and how much? The big winners were Argentina as the market shifted nearly 4% in their favour. Was England’s draw so bad? They slipped from 28 to 30 in decimal odds, […]<\/p>\n

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