{"id":9266,"date":"2013-11-30T09:30:49","date_gmt":"2013-11-30T09:30:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.betangel.com\/blog_wp\/?p=9266"},"modified":"2013-12-26T17:02:55","modified_gmt":"2013-12-26T17:02:55","slug":"premiership-teams-european-performace","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/2013\/11\/30\/premiership-teams-european-performace\/","title":{"rendered":"Do teams perform better or worse after European games?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Kindly brought to your by our friends over at\u00a0Football Form Labs<\/a>.<\/p>\n

European hangovers?<\/strong><\/p>\n

At the start of last season we analysed the impact of European games on teams\u2019 following domestic matches. What we found was that backing teams playing at home after an away trip in Europe was a potentially profitable strategy.<\/p>\n

When removing games where teams faced a knock-out game in Europe for their next match (i.e. their domestic match was sandwiched between two European knockout matches) we had 402 relevant games in the Big 5 leagues from 2002\/03 to 2011\/12 where sides were playing at home following an away game in the Champions League.<\/p>\n

Home Games in the Big 5 following an Away Game in Europe (2002\/03 to 2011\/12)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n
Post Euro<\/strong><\/td>\nMatches<\/strong><\/td>\nWin %<\/strong><\/td>\nDraw %<\/strong><\/td>\nLoss %<\/strong><\/td>\nWin ROI<\/strong><\/td>\nDraw ROI<\/strong><\/td>\nLoss ROI<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ECL<\/td>\n402<\/td>\n65<\/td>\n23<\/td>\n12<\/td>\n-0.7%<\/td>\n-9.7%<\/td>\n-34.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Since the start of last season the results for these situations have been:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n
Post Euro<\/strong><\/td>\nMatches<\/strong><\/td>\nWin %<\/strong><\/td>\nDraw %<\/strong><\/td>\nLoss %<\/strong><\/td>\nWin ROI<\/strong><\/td>\nDraw ROI<\/strong><\/td>\nLoss ROI<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ECL<\/td>\n59<\/td>\n75<\/td>\n12<\/td>\n13<\/td>\n14.6%<\/td>\n-57.6%<\/td>\n-40.2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

N.B. It\u2019s important to note here that these returns are all based on average odds and that taking best prices could reasonably improve these returns by about 5%.<\/p>\n

If you\u2019d been backing the home teams in the Premier League following an away European game this season you\u2019d have backed Man Utd\u2019s win over Arsenal, Chelsea\u2019s win over Man City, and City\u2019s win over Utd amongst other results.<\/p>\n

Home teams this weekend that played away in the Champions League in midweek are: Chelsea<\/strong> vs Southampton, Bayern<\/strong> v Eitracht Braunschweig, Schalke <\/strong>v Stuttgart, and Marseille <\/strong>v Montpellier. [Peter Webb] Not forgetting of course Man Utd<\/strong>‘s major performance mid-week, confidence should be following this weekend.<\/p>\n

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Kindly brought to your by our friends over at\u00a0Football Form Labs. European hangovers? At the start of last season we analysed the impact of European games on teams\u2019 following domestic matches. What we found was that backing teams playing at home after an away trip in Europe was a potentially profitable strategy. When removing games […]<\/p>\n

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