{"id":8887,"date":"2013-09-14T08:30:10","date_gmt":"2013-09-14T07:30:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.betangel.com\/blog_wp\/?p=8887"},"modified":"2013-09-21T05:42:58","modified_gmt":"2013-09-21T04:42:58","slug":"will-the-premier-league-goal-drought-continue","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/2013\/09\/14\/will-the-premier-league-goal-drought-continue\/","title":{"rendered":"Will the premier league goal drought continue?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Many thanks to our friends over at\u00a0Football Form Labs<\/a>\u00a0for this guest post. \u00a0Football\u00a0Form Lab<\/a>\u00a0is software that I use to help me spot patterns or trends in football matches. It can help you identify thousands of opportunities every week across over 40 different leagues. \u00a0It’s very detailed and that’s why I like it, so much information.<\/p>\n

Form Labs is currently on offer and you can save 66% on a\u00a0Form Labs subscription<\/a>.<\/p>\n

ANALYSIS \u2013 WILL THE PREMIER LEAGUE GOAL DROUGHT CONTINUE?<\/b><\/p>\n

\u00a0The low amount of goals at the start of the 2013\/2014 Premier League season has worried many fans, pundits, and punters alike.<\/p>\n

Looking at similar seasons in the Premier League, we can possibly expect a below average amount of goals for the rest of the first 10 weeks, before numbers return towards the league average. However, don\u2019t rule out another drop in goals at the end of the season.<\/p>\n

At this stage we\u2019d cautiously suggest that \u2018unders\u2019 represents slightly greater value for the next few weeks. However, there could be real value in \u2018overs\u2019 from weeks 11-20, as the bookies might over-react to the low scoring start. This is also historically the most profitable quarter of the season for backing \u2018overs\u2019 (there tends to be a slight drop in goals in the third quarter, while \u2018overs\u2019 gets priced in during the fourth quarter).<\/p>\n

Significantly, in the similar 2005\/06 Premier League season, we have +3.5 goals odds in our database for 121 of the 200 matches in weeks 11-20 and you\u2019d have made a 32% profit backing +3.5 goals in those games (from average odds), as 35% saw at least four goals. For the other 79 games in that period, we have the +2.5 odds and those would have generated a 2% profit from average odds.<\/p>\n

To see the full analysis please go to the Strategies tab within Form Labs.<\/b><\/p>\n

MATCH PREVIEW –\u00a0<\/b>Man Utd v Crystal Palace<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0Man Utd have not made the best of starts under David Moyes, having not scored in their past two games and now been subject to ridicule after their manoeuvrings in the transfer window. Crystal Palace, meanwhile, are off and running after a first win in their last game.<\/p>\n

\u00a0United shouldn\u2019t panic, however, given they earned the same number of points from the equivalent fixtures last season and certainly weren\u2019t outplayed by Liverpool or Chelsea. It would certainly be a huge surprise if they went a third game without scoring. Since 2010\/11, they’ve won 17 of 18 home matches against teams that finished in the bottom six (as we expect Palace to do) and they averaged 3.39 goals per game in those matches. 72% of the 18 matches resulted in Win\/Win doubles and 78% saw the Red Devils win by at least two goals, with half by three or more. Furthermore, they\u2019ve won 14 of 15 home games against promoted teams since 2008\/09, with 11 wins to nil.<\/p>\n

\u00a0Crystal Palace are yet to concede before half-time but while QPR and Wigan, last season, both stopped United from scoring in the first half at Old Trafford they both ended up losing by at least two goals and we\u2019d expect the same here in that eventuality. The win to nil looks a great price at evens and we\u2019d split stakes between that and Man United on the Asian Handicap -2.0 at 2.07.<\/b><\/p>\n

\u00a0Given how Palace have kept things tight early on so far this season and United strong record of winning to nil against promoted teams we\u2019d be wary of backing over-goals with Over 2.5 as short as 1.5. However, we\u2019d expect the champions to take advantage as Palace tire and Over 1.5 goals in the second half looks a great price at 1.8.<\/b><\/p>\n

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Many thanks to our friends over at\u00a0Football Form Labs\u00a0for this guest post. \u00a0Football\u00a0Form Lab\u00a0is software that I use to help me spot patterns or trends in football matches. It can help you identify thousands of opportunities every week across over 40 different leagues. \u00a0It’s very detailed and that’s why I like it, so much information. […]<\/p>\n

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