{"id":8502,"date":"2013-07-03T13:46:38","date_gmt":"2013-07-03T12:46:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.betangel.com\/blog_wp\/?p=8502"},"modified":"2013-07-10T11:41:57","modified_gmt":"2013-07-10T10:41:57","slug":"bartoli-bonkers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/2013\/07\/03\/bartoli-bonkers\/","title":{"rendered":"Bartoli Bonkers"},"content":{"rendered":"

I fancied the Stephens vs Bartoli match above others yesterday because it looked much more competitive. It turned out to be a very interesting match.<\/p>\n

Bartoli was soundly disliked for pushing for a rain break when the crowd wanted more action, but the break didn’t do much to diminish her spirit and she closed out the match. In fact it looked like a bit of gamesmanship from Bartoli. She demanded to stop play at 4-5 to her and 40-40 on Stephens serve. That aside, it was a most interesting match for one standout reason, the number of breaks of serve.<\/p>\n

In the women’s game you tend to get more breaks as the serve isn’t so dominant. But in the first set we went 9 games with server then Bartoli broke in the 10th game to take the set. The second set was a whole different kettle of fish though and after a service hold Bartoli’s odds came into 1.22 for the match. Bartoli then broke to see her odds drop to 1.13 and there followed eight breaks of serve.<\/p>\n

The extraordinary thing about this is that if you assume the chance of a break is 30%, then this sequence was a one in 15,000 chance. If you had the foresight to oppose each player at the start of this sequence then you would have returned 106% of your trading stake. Having the foresight to predict that however, would have been equally remarkable!<\/p>\n

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I fancied the Stephens vs Bartoli match above others yesterday because it looked much more competitive. It turned out to be a very interesting match. Bartoli was soundly disliked for pushing for a rain break when the crowd wanted more action, but the break didn’t do much to diminish her spirit and she closed out […]<\/p>\n

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