Despite its rarity, there was a logical way to trade this match, and if you were on Twitter you would have ‘heard’ me make my decision in real time. Here is some logic as to why a lay of Reading at half time made sense.<\/p>\n
First up, there was little cost in doing so, your downside was neatly framed to a small percentage. The upside was unknown but Arsenal goals would most likely give us a pay off above our initial risk, maybe even a full pay off. 4-0 down just before half time Arsenal had a mountain to climb. But, if you are a football watcher you will know the importance of a goal and the momentum it brings. At 4-0 the match was Reading’s, but a goal either side of half time could create a mercurial change in momentum. This is because of the FUD factor. Fear, Uncertainty & Doubt. The scoreline flattered Reading and conceding momentum may compound the issue. You also have the critical break in play and that often creates a wobble in the team or player that is in the zone. Good managers will use the break to re-form their tactics.<\/p>\n
So the set up of a goal just before half time, then the half time break gave us an opportunity. From there it was all about when we would decide to cash out. On this occasion I got a little lucky. Before the match started I had already traded Reading and carried that in-play. When Reading raced into the lead and gave me my set up, it was a no brainer to use the ‘free’ money to lay them. From there it was over to Arsenal.<\/p>\n
The stats suggested that Arsenal should bring some\u00a0equilibrium\u00a0to the match but Reading put in a sterling rearguard action. In the end they were desperately unlucky not to progress to the next round. The Arsenal\u00a0equaliser\u00a0came in the fifth minute of four minutes of injury time, a little bit odd. But for me it brought a big result on the match. The timing of the prior goals never gave me the upside I needed, so I let the position carry through and therein came my second bit of fortune.<\/p>\n
At the end of the day, opposing teams that race to an early lead can be a decent strategy, but only given the right set up. You also need a sensible return, so a gap of less than four goals is obviously better. On this occasion I had little to lose so went for it, but I guess it may be a fair time before exactly the same situation bears fruit in the same manner. But I now have a nice buffer which I can spend chasing more opportunities!<\/p>\n
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![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.betangel.com\/blog_wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/10\/30-10-2012-20-35-01-600x428.png\" "\\"30-10-2012")
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