Not sure I’ve seen a team turnaround four goals in the last half an hour though,\u00a0a remarkable result!<\/p>\n
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That was an interesting night.<\/p>\n
For some reason the polish officials thought that with a large weather front moving over Poland full of rain, it was a good idea to let the pitch get completely waterlogged by not closing the roof. Echos of June & Euro 2012, though that was a bit further to the east. Any how, onto what did take place….<\/p>\n
It was good to see Portugal\u00a0 engaging in austerity, unfortunately for their fans it was in front of goal! Portugal, as highlighted in a previous post, did their best to completely frustrate their long suffering fans again as Ireland took every opportunity to overturn odds of less than 1.10 at the off. I had hoped to work some money into the market before the off but nobody was taking my offers by laying at short odds. Bad move!<\/p>\n
France ensured 1.01 was beaten in their match in Spain, where a 94th minute goal ensured a draw with\u00a0Spain.<\/p>\n
But the most remarkable match came in Germany where the six goal winners against Northern Ireland threw away a four goal lead on 60 mins to snatch a draw from almost certainly victory. I can tell you that doesn’t happen very often at all, especially against a home side starting at short odds.<\/p>\n
Betting exchanges only prices matches to a maximum of 1000 to lose, or 0.10% to win in implied chance terms so I thought I would run some maths against last nights match to see what odds could have been offered in an unlimited market. So I ran my model and can see that at 4-0 up on 60 minutes my model reckons the draw would have happened once in 5276 matches. At the start of the match I would have priced the chance of a 4-4 in the realms of around 1250\/1.<\/p>\n
I’ve seen a few remarkable turnarounds in my time but few involving four goals.\u00a0 However, you only need to go back to April this year<\/a> for the same result in almost equally improbably circumstances. Wolves were away from home and 3-1 down after 15 minutes then 4-1 down after 31 mins but still managed to snatch a draw.<\/p>\n Not sure I’ve seen a team turnaround four goals in the last half an hour though,\u00a0a remarkable result!<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n
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