This is what the market thinks of this evening’s matches. Always remember, such is the variability of football that these represent average figures. It’s always going to be a numbers game: –<\/p>\n
Villareal vs Arsenal & Man Utd vs Porto<\/strong><\/p>\n Despite Wengers “we are the underdogs” cry. The market doesn’t think so pricing Arsenal for the win. The market ‘thinks’ there will be on average 2.24 goals in the Arsenal game and 2.60 in the Man Utd game. Man U are clear favourites.<\/p>\n Typically the objective of the first leg is to either try to sneak and away goal or shut out the strong attack. I think both tactics suit each game respectively. Porto will try and hold out with the hope of a result on their home turf and Arsenal will be looking to not do anything silly.<\/p>\n Over and Unders<\/strong><\/p>\n Arsenal should be priced at 1.60 and they are! No value there unfortunately. Man U should be priced at 1.90 so the price is slightly short.<\/p>\n Similar matches – Arsenal 19\/10\/2008 – PAOK vs Pana – 0-0<\/p>\n 10\/4\/2007 – Valencia vs Chelsea 1-2<\/p>\n 20\/2\/2007 – PSV vs Arsenal 1-0<\/p>\n 25\/11\/2008 – Villarreal vs Man U 0-0<\/p>\n There were around 30 matches that had similar characteristics and on average the score was 0.94 to 1.12. Low scoring affairs.<\/p>\n Similar matches – Man U<\/strong><\/p>\n 31\/1\/2009 – Man U vs Everton 1-0<\/p>\n 23\/2\/2008 – Liverpool vs Middles 3-2<\/p>\n 5\/3\/2008 – Liverpool vs W Ham 4-0<\/p>\n 1\/3\/2009 – Villa vs Stoke 2-2<\/p>\n Quite a few to pick from but very few that could directly translate. Tended to be higher scoring affairs with an average of 1.9 goals to 0.65. Quite likely to be a home win!
\n<\/strong><\/p>\n
\n<\/strong><\/p>\n
\n<\/strong><\/p>\n