{"id":5047,"date":"2012-01-26T09:41:14","date_gmt":"2012-01-26T09:41:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.betangel.com\/blog_wp\/?p=5047"},"modified":"2012-01-26T09:41:14","modified_gmt":"2012-01-26T09:41:14","slug":"bumps-and-ripples","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/2012\/01\/26\/bumps-and-ripples\/","title":{"rendered":"Bumps and ripples"},"content":{"rendered":"

What can you tell about a Tennis match before it has started? Quite\u00a0 a lot actually.<\/p>\n

The market is pretty accurate at discounting value into a match and assessing the relative strengths of different players, from that you can plot the most likely path through a match and its progression. You can also hunt for bumps and ripples in that path for odds that are most likely to be reached and how. If you do this, you will see that as a match progresses through various stages, certain odds are more likely than others. Of course this shifts as the match moves on, but if you look these values up before the start you can pick and target certain entry and exit points in advance and benefit from this foresight.<\/p>\n

Here is a chart of today’s match between Federer and Nadal. I built it using Tennis Trader<\/a> and it highlights, sometimes subtly, where some of these bumps and ripples are. On the axis you can see the frequency of occurance and on the x axis, the scoreline.<\/p>\n

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What can you tell about a Tennis match before it has started? Quite\u00a0 a lot actually. The market is pretty accurate at discounting value into a match and assessing the relative strengths of different players, from that you can plot the most likely path through a match and its progression. You can also hunt for […]<\/p>\n

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