![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.betangel.com\/blog_wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/10\/imagesCAFFYOEK.jpg\" "\\"imagesCAFFYOEK\\"")
<\/p>\nScotland travel to Spain this evening in an attempt to pull off the biggest shock in Euro qualification history with a win in the world champions back yard. Before we completely dismiss their chances, lets look at the some stats.<\/p>\n
The market is pricing in a dominant Spanish performance with Spain coming out winners by at least two goals on average. In the past there have been some big wins in matches like this, but also a few shocks. Overall I found 211 similar looking matches in my database and of those 15 ended up as away wins or 7%. Scotland are priced at 20’s or around a 5% chance. 162 matches ended up as home wins equating to around 1.30 in digital odds. Spain are priced at 1.20, a little short. Spain should win but the stats hint that with such a strong Scottish incentive to win, the odds on\u00a0a Spainish win are a little on the skinny side. The market has the overs and unders market spot on according to historic stats.<\/p>\n
If you are looking for how such an unlikely win could occur here are a selection of matches where the unlikely did happen, study them for potential clues: –<\/p>\n
Away – 2010 – Liverpool vs Blackpool – Result – 1-2
\nAway – 2010 – Arsenal vs Newcastle – Result – 0-1
\nAway – 2008 – Porto vs Leixoes – Result – 2-3
\nAway – 2009 – B Munich vs FC Koln – Result – 1-2
\nAway – 2009 – Barcelona vs Espanyol – Result – 1-2
\nAway – 2009 – AC Milan vs FC Zurich – Result – 0-1
\nAway – 2010 – Man Utd vs Leeds – Result – 0-1
\nAway – 2010 – Tottenham vs Wigan – Result – 0-1<\/p>\n
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