{"id":4491,"date":"2011-10-01T08:30:16","date_gmt":"2011-10-01T07:30:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.betangel.com\/blog_wp\/?p=4491"},"modified":"2012-11-24T14:17:00","modified_gmt":"2012-11-24T14:17:00","slug":"new_manager_effect","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/2011\/10\/01\/new_manager_effect\/","title":{"rendered":"The new manager effect"},"content":{"rendered":"

Early this week I was listening to the interview with Nottingham Forest manager Steve McClaren after watching his team get thumped 5-1. It was a depressing experience. Forest started the season at a good price for promotion but have since looked like a team trying to avoid relegation. McClaren seemed clueless to give a clear example of how he will turn their fortunes around. Should Forest sack him?<\/p>\n

Another area of research I have done in the past is based around the new manager effect. I’ve researched not only what happens but why. Here is the what.<\/p>\n

On the sample I looked at, sacking a manager generally lifted league positions on average by 1.17 places in a 20-24 field league. So there you go, sack your manager now!<\/strong> But more interesting was some of the detail in the averages.<\/p>\n

If your club is right at the bottom or top of the league, then a sacking doesn’t seem to have as much effect as elsewhere on the league table. But the most predominant factor appeared to be the ‘popularity’ of the manager. If you sack a ‘popular’ manager, your form will decline no matter who you bring in. If you sack an ‘unpopular’ manager then your form improves whoever you bring in. Clubs that made a ‘popular’ appointment gained an average of six league places and those that didn’t fell on average. That inevitably lead me to ask why you see this effect, so I worked on this with a psychologist. But that’s another story.<\/p>\n

Of course, that doesn’t directly answer the question of whether or not McClaren is popular or unpopular, but if it’s the latter and he is sacked start backing Forest.<\/p>\n

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Early this week I was listening to the interview with Nottingham Forest manager Steve McClaren after watching his team get thumped 5-1. It was a depressing experience. Forest started the season at a good price for promotion but have since looked like a team trying to avoid relegation. McClaren seemed clueless to give a clear […]<\/p>\n

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