{"id":1188,"date":"2009-08-15T10:15:05","date_gmt":"2009-08-15T09:15:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.betangel.com\/blog_wp\/?p=1188"},"modified":"2012-02-07T11:00:08","modified_gmt":"2012-02-07T11:00:08","slug":"federer-crashes-out","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/2009\/08\/15\/federer-crashes-out\/","title":{"rendered":"Federer crashes out"},"content":{"rendered":"

With Nadal and Federer losing at the Montreal Masters<\/strong><\/a>, Andy Murray now has a great chance to pop up one place in the rankings to world number two.<\/p>\n

Federer’s match was quite remarkable being two breaks up and 5-1 up in the final set, but still losing. Scott did a good post on the market on his blog<\/a>. At 5-1 up in the final set I calculated his odds at 99.7% or basically 1.00, so no particular value at 1.01 to lay but Tsonga was priced at 370 on my spreadsheet. He was available to back at 500’s. Hindsight it a wonderful thing isn’t it! Even taking into account the price that still only represented a 0.3% chance of winning.<\/p>\n

Interestingly, holding serve reduced those odds to 41, the break 32, another hold to 3.57. Just shows you that when a Tennis match swings it often does so in spectacular fashion.<\/p>\n

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With Nadal and Federer losing at the Montreal Masters, Andy Murray now has a great chance to pop up one place in the rankings to world number two. Federer’s match was quite remarkable being two breaks up and 5-1 up in the final set, but still losing. Scott did a good post on the market […]<\/p>\n

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