{"id":11462,"date":"2015-10-17T06:54:47","date_gmt":"2015-10-17T05:54:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.betangel.com\/blog_wp\/?p=11462"},"modified":"2015-10-24T16:54:14","modified_gmt":"2015-10-24T15:54:14","slug":"saturday-soccer-stats-28","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/2015\/10\/17\/saturday-soccer-stats-28\/","title":{"rendered":"Saturday Soccer Stats"},"content":{"rendered":"

These stats are\u00a0brought to your by our friends over at\u00a0Football Form Labs<\/span><\/a>. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments. Football form labs is on offer at the moment, big savings available during August.<\/span><\/p>\n

Editorial notes: –<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

A couple of interesting bits this week, the match preview of Spurs vs Liverpool (I do wonder whether we will see the new manager effect come to the fore here<\/a>) and some interesting analysis on the defence of the title by Chelsea.<\/span><\/p>\n

Spurs v Liverpool, Sat\u00a012:45<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

A draw in the derby wasn\u2019t enough to save Brendan Rodgers\u2019 job as the Liverpool board took decisive action after a start that sees them sitting 10th<\/sup> but having scored more than once in only one of their last 11 games dating back to the tail-end of last season. In contrast, Spurs are unbeaten in seven matches since an opening day defeat at Old Trafford and with Christian Eriksen back fit they look increasingly impressive.<\/span><\/p>\n

The good news for Liverpool fans comes with a head-to-head record that shows they\u2019ve won their last five matches against Spurs while scoring 18 times (at least three in every match). It\u2019s hard to argue that will be too relevant here, however.<\/span><\/p>\n

Spurs have won 10 of their last 17 home games with just two defeats and given Liverpool\u2019s recent away record \u2013 which has been poor for several years \u2013 of one win in nine with four defeats, the home team looks to offer some value at 2.5<\/strong>. Furthermore, in the past two seasons Spurs\u2019 home record against teams that finished 5th<\/sup>-10th<\/sup> is W5-D2-L3, which would suggest a price of closer to evens. Against that is Liverpool\u2019s surprisingly impressive away record against the same teams of W7-D2-L2, though post-Luis Suarez the stats were W3-D0-L2 last term.<\/span><\/p>\n

Liverpool\u2019s lack of goals has already been mentioned and, while we would expect that to improve with Daniel Sturridge back in the fold and Christian Benteke returning from injury, the problem is particularly acute on the road, where they\u2019ve scored just 13 times in their last 16 matches. However, despite these scoring troubles six of their nine trips to top-half finishers last term had at least three goals as they were usually good for scoring once while the defence wasn\u2019t convincing. Furthermore, we\u2019ve not yet mentioned Jurgen Klopp, and one thing his matches in charges of Dortmund were never lacking for was goals. This was particularly true on the road, as in his last three seasons Dortmund\u2019s 51 away games averaged 3.33 goals per game and 71% saw both teams score. In line with this nine of Spurs\u2019 last 19 wins have been by 2-1 scores, which is a tempting 10.5 shot,<\/strong> while 14 have been despite conceding.<\/span><\/p>\n

Spurs\u2019 improvements in their past couple of games can be put down to the return of Eriksen; in his 64 starts Spurs average 1.61 goals per game while the 18 matches he\u2019s missed since joining the club have seen the Lilywhites hit the net just 19 times (1.06 gpg). That difference is even more pronounced at home and his combination with Harry Kane should see them have a great chance of scoring at least twice. Kane and Eriksen have started37 games together and 27 (73%) have had at least three goals while Spurs have scored at least twice in 13 of the 18 home games in this sample.<\/span><\/p>\n

Are Premier League Champions Resting on their Laurels?<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

Whilst Bayern and PSG continue to dominate and exerted their authority over their \u2018rivals\u2019 Dortmund and Marseille respectively in their most recent league games, last season\u2019s Champions in Europe\u2019s other three \u2018Big Leagues\u2019, Barcelona, Juventus, and Chelsea \u00a0have all had their struggles at the start of the season. Chelsea\u2019s demise has undoubtedly been the most spectacular and assuming they don\u2019t do something truly miraculous, with even Mourinho admitting after the Southampton defeat that the top-four is the best they can hope for now, then no Premier League side will have managed to successfully defend the title since Man United enjoyed a third consecutive success in 2008\/09. In this way, Chelsea\u2019s struggles may be part of a wider problem faced by all Premier League champions in recent years.<\/span><\/p>\n

What stands out amongst recent winners of the Premier League is their relative complacency in the transfer market, with the champions seemingly believing that what they had last season is enough to get the job done again, while their rivals have strengthened significantly. Below is a table looking at the net-transfer window spend of the last six Premier League winners in the summer following their title success, as well as the spending of the last five league winners in the summer preceding their triumph.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Season<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nWinner<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nSummer Transfer Spending (\u00a3m)<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nSummer Transfer Sales (\u00a3m)<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nNet Summer Transfer (\u00a3m)<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nFollowing Season <\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nFollowing Season Champions<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nChampions Transfer Spend<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2014\/15<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nChelsea<\/span><\/td>\n57.47<\/span><\/td>\n41.36<\/span><\/td>\n16.11<\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2013\/14<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nMan City<\/span><\/td>\n45.85<\/span><\/td>\n23.64<\/span><\/td>\n22.21<\/span><\/td>\n2<\/span><\/td>\nChelsea<\/span><\/td>\n74.69<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2012\/13<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nMan Utd<\/span><\/td>\n23.26<\/span><\/td>\n1.26<\/span><\/td>\n22<\/span><\/td>\n7<\/span><\/td>\nMan City<\/span><\/td>\n81.2<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2011\/12<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nMan City<\/span><\/td>\n43.37<\/span><\/td>\n31.01<\/span><\/td>\n12.36<\/span><\/td>\n2<\/span><\/td>\nMan Utd<\/span><\/td>\n45.29<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2010\/11<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nMan Utd<\/span><\/td>\n40.11<\/span><\/td>\n10.91<\/span><\/td>\n29.2<\/span><\/td>\n2<\/span><\/td>\nMan City<\/span><\/td>\n67.24<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2009\/10<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nChelsea<\/span><\/td>\n26.6<\/span><\/td>\n11.55<\/span><\/td>\n15.05<\/span><\/td>\n2<\/span><\/td>\nMan Utd<\/span><\/td>\n20.51<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

All transfer figures taken from www.transfermarkt.co.uk<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

There are a number of interesting points to make about this data, the most obvious of which is that since 2010\/11, the Premier League champions have been outspent in the summer transfer window by the side that went on to win the league the following season. Indeed, none of the last six champions have spent more than \u00a360m while none have had a net spend of more than \u00a330m. Conversely, the average spend in the transfer window of the last five champions in the summer prior to their title win is \u00a357.79m and current league leaders City, who are now odds on to win the title this season, spent an eye-watering \u00a3142.36m in the summer.<\/span><\/p>\n

Below is a list of players that have been signed by the last six Premier League champions for at least \u00a35m in the summer window following their title success along with their age and transfer fee. Players that are currently regular starters for their clubs are highlighted in green while those in red have all since been sold and all these players are sorted by their fee.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Season<\/span><\/td>\nClub<\/span><\/td>\nPlayer<\/span><\/td>\nAge<\/span><\/td>\nFee (\u00a3m)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2014\/15<\/span><\/td>\nMan City<\/span><\/td>\nEliaquim Mangala<\/span><\/td>\n23<\/span><\/td>\n28<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2013\/14<\/span><\/td>\nMan Utd<\/span><\/td>\nMarouane Fellaini<\/span><\/td>\n25<\/span><\/td>\n22.7<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2015\/16<\/span><\/td>\nChelsea<\/span><\/td>\nPedro<\/span><\/td>\n28<\/span><\/td>\n18.9<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2010\/11<\/span><\/td>\nChelsea<\/span><\/td>\nRamires<\/span><\/td>\n23<\/span><\/td>\n15.4<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2012\/13<\/span><\/td>\nMan City<\/span><\/td>\nJavi Garcia<\/span><\/td>\n25<\/span><\/td>\n14.1<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2015\/16<\/span><\/td>\nChelsea<\/span><\/td>\nBaba Rahman<\/span><\/td>\n21<\/span><\/td>\n14<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2011\/12<\/span><\/td>\nMan Utd<\/span><\/td>\nDavid de Gea<\/span><\/td>\n20<\/span><\/td>\n14<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2011\/12<\/span><\/td>\nMan Utd<\/span><\/td>\nPhil Jones<\/span><\/td>\n19<\/span><\/td>\n13.5<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2011\/12<\/span><\/td>\nMan Utd<\/span><\/td>\nAshley Young<\/span><\/td>\n25<\/span><\/td>\n12.6<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2012\/13<\/span><\/td>\nMan City<\/span><\/td>\nMatija Nastasic<\/span><\/td>\n19<\/span><\/td>\n10.7<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2014\/15<\/span><\/td>\nMan City<\/span><\/td>\nFernando<\/span><\/td>\n26<\/span><\/td>\n10.5<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2012\/13<\/span><\/td>\nMan City<\/span><\/td>\nJack Rodwell<\/span><\/td>\n21<\/span><\/td>\n10.5<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2015\/16<\/span><\/td>\nChelsea<\/span><\/td>\nAsmir Begovic<\/span><\/td>\n28<\/span><\/td>\n7.7<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2015\/16<\/span><\/td>\nChelsea<\/span><\/td>\nKenedy<\/span><\/td>\n19<\/span><\/td>\n5.6<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2014\/15<\/span><\/td>\nMan City<\/span><\/td>\nWilly Caballero<\/span><\/td>\n32<\/span><\/td>\n5.6<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2012\/13<\/span><\/td>\nMan City<\/span><\/td>\nScott Sinclair<\/span><\/td>\n23<\/span><\/td>\n5.5<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\nAverage<\/span><\/td>\n23.6<\/span><\/td>\n13.1<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

All transfer figures taken from www.transfermarkt.co.uk<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Of these 16 players, only three are currently regular starters for their clubs and indeed more players have already been sold on than are first team regulars, interestingly all from Man City. The average age of these players is just 23.6 with recent Premier League champions mainly looking towards the future. Conversely, after falling short of their Manchester rivals by 11 points in 2012\/13, City signed the already established Fernandinho, Negredo, Navas, Demichelis, and to a lesser extent Jovetic and promptly went on to win the league. The signings of Diego Costa and Cesc Fabregas had a similar effect for Chelsea last season.<\/span><\/p>\n

With rumours that Gareth Bale would be available for transfer over the summer, Gary Neville on MNF at the end of last season suggested that if Chelsea were able to capture the Welshman then they\u2019d be hard to beat for the next few seasons and though the availability of top players in the transfer market is an issue, there seems a reluctance amongst English clubs to really push on when they\u2019ve won the league and dominate for the next few seasons. It\u2019s perhaps for this reason that English sides are struggling in Europe with the likes of Chelsea, City, and United all beating each other in recent times and failing to exert dominance for an extended period of time.<\/span><\/p>\n

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These stats are\u00a0brought to your by our friends over at\u00a0Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments. Football form labs is on offer at the moment, big savings available during August. Editorial notes: – A couple of interesting bits this week, the match preview of Spurs vs […]<\/p>\n

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