{"id":11052,"date":"2015-06-27T12:09:19","date_gmt":"2015-06-27T11:09:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.betangel.com\/blog_wp\/?p=11052"},"modified":"2015-06-28T18:32:45","modified_gmt":"2015-06-28T17:32:45","slug":"early-season-expectations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/2015\/06\/27\/early-season-expectations\/","title":{"rendered":"Early season expectations"},"content":{"rendered":"

A interesting\u00a0write up\u00a0brought to your by our friends over at\u00a0Football Form Labs<\/span><\/a>. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

[Peter – I’ve also looked into the start of the season for opportunities to lay or back teams with difficult or easy starts. Bournemouth and Norwich have a fair start but descend into some really tough fixtures as the season warms up. You can use this information and the sort of stuff produced here to get some value before a team reverts to mean, which they nearly always do! Keep an eye on signings as well.]<\/span><\/p>\n

Given the excitement surrounding the release of the fixtures for the 2015\/16 Premier League season we have looked at the effect the order of their fixtures will have on their fortunes for the upcoming season. We<\/a>\u2019ve left out the three promoted sides and for the teams that have fixtures against Bournemouth, Watford, and Norwich in their opening 10 games we\u2019ve switched these sides with the three teams that went down. Effectively, Bournemouth have taken Hull\u2019s place, Watford have replaced Burnley, and Norwich are the new QPR.<\/span><\/span>Below is how the Premier League will look after 10 games if the 17 teams that competed in the Premier League last season pick up exactly the same results this time around as they did in the corresponding fixtures last term.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Position<\/b><\/span><\/td>\nTeam<\/b><\/span><\/td>\nPts<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1<\/span><\/td>\nChelsea<\/span><\/td>\n23<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/span><\/td>\nArsenal<\/span><\/td>\n22<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/span><\/td>\nMan Utd<\/span><\/td>\n22<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/span><\/td>\nSwansea<\/span><\/td>\n18<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/span><\/td>\nMan City<\/span><\/td>\n16<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/span><\/td>\nWest Ham<\/span><\/td>\n16<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/span><\/td>\nStoke<\/span><\/td>\n16<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/span><\/td>\nLiverpool<\/span><\/td>\n14<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
9<\/span><\/td>\nWest Brom<\/span><\/td>\n14<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10<\/span><\/td>\nSouthampton<\/span><\/td>\n13<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
11<\/span><\/td>\nEverton<\/span><\/td>\n12<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
12<\/span><\/td>\nSunderland<\/span><\/td>\n12<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
13<\/span><\/td>\nTottenham<\/span><\/td>\n11<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
14<\/span><\/td>\nCrystal Palace<\/span><\/td>\n11<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
15<\/span><\/td>\nLeicester<\/span><\/td>\n11<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
16<\/span><\/td>\nAston Villa<\/span><\/td>\n11<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
17<\/span><\/td>\nNewcastle<\/span><\/td>\n8<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n
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Unsurprisingly, champions Chelsea would be top of the league after 10 games if every team reproduced their results from last season, but they would have both Arsenal and Man Utd in close proximity. Man City, conversely, would be seven points off the top spot already, with Garry Monk\u2019s impressive Swansea side replacing them in that all important top-four. The other contenders for the top-four spot, Liverpool and Spurs would be well off the pace while Newcastle would be slightly adrift at the foot of the table and the \u2018McClaren Out\u2019 banners would be getting readied.<\/span><\/span>We can also compare these teams in their relevant long-term markets to see if there might be some value in taking or opposing an early position.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Team<\/b><\/span><\/td>\nPrice to Win PL 15\/16<\/b><\/span><\/td>\nExpected 10 Game Pts<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Chelsea<\/span><\/td>\n2.5<\/span><\/td>\n23<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Man City<\/span><\/td>\n3.75<\/span><\/td>\n16<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Arsenal<\/span><\/td>\n6<\/span><\/td>\n22<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Man Utd<\/span><\/td>\n6.5<\/span><\/td>\n22<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Liverpool<\/span><\/td>\n34<\/span><\/td>\n14<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Tottenham<\/span><\/td>\n126<\/span><\/td>\n11<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Team<\/b><\/span><\/td>\nW\/O Big 6 15\/16<\/b><\/span><\/td>\nExpected 10 Game Pts<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Southampton<\/span><\/td>\n3<\/span><\/td>\n13<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Everton<\/span><\/td>\n3.75<\/span><\/td>\n12<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Swansea<\/span><\/td>\n11<\/span><\/td>\n18<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
West Ham<\/span><\/td>\n11<\/span><\/td>\n16<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Stoke<\/span><\/td>\n13<\/span><\/td>\n16<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Newcastle<\/span><\/td>\n21<\/span><\/td>\n8<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Crystal Palace<\/span><\/td>\n21<\/span><\/td>\n11<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Team<\/b><\/span><\/td>\nRelegation 15\/16<\/b><\/span><\/td>\nExpected 10 Game Pts<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sunderland<\/span><\/td>\n3.5<\/span><\/td>\n12<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Leicester<\/span><\/td>\n5.5<\/span><\/td>\n11<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Aston Villa<\/span><\/td>\n6<\/span><\/td>\n11<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
West Brom<\/span><\/td>\n6<\/span><\/td>\n14<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n
\n

Man City will have to significantly improve upon their results in the corresponding fixtures last season if they are to live up to their billing of second favourites for the title and it certainly looks a good idea to wait a couple of months before thinking about backing them as if, after 10 games, they are a couple of points off the lead their price may not have changed much but they should be a much better proposition than they are now.<\/span><\/p>\n

Arsenal and Man Utd arguably look better value alternatives to Chelsea at this stage while it could pay to oppose Spurs and Liverpool for a top four finish straight away.<\/span><\/p>\n

Swansea, or even West Ham and Stoke, look like value in the \u201cWithout the Big 6\u201d market if they can replicate last season\u2019s results early on but given the expected early struggles for Liverpool and Spurs the 17.0 on Swansea to finish in the top six may look a fantastic price by the end of October.<\/span><\/p>\n

Newcastle should probably be shorter than the 6.5 currently being quoted for them to be relegated if they reproduce what they did last season this time around and they may be hoping for the promoted teams to struggle, although Bournemouth and Norwich will probably be very content with their games in the opening quarter of the season.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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A interesting\u00a0write up\u00a0brought to your by our friends over at\u00a0Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments. [Peter – I’ve also looked into the start of the season for opportunities to lay or back teams with difficult or easy starts. Bournemouth and Norwich have a fair start […]<\/p>\n

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