{"id":10965,"date":"2015-06-11T17:01:31","date_gmt":"2015-06-11T16:01:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.betangel.com\/blog_wp\/?p=10965"},"modified":"2015-06-19T10:17:18","modified_gmt":"2015-06-19T09:17:18","slug":"atp-game-tennis-trading","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/2015\/06\/11\/atp-game-tennis-trading\/","title":{"rendered":"ATP In-Game Tennis Trading"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong style=\"color: #000000;\"><em>Many Thanks to\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennisratings.co.uk\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Dan Weston<\/span><\/a>\u00a0who was the guest poster for this article, visit Dan&#8217;s excellent\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennisratings.co.uk\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Tennis ratings site for lots of useful Tennis stats<\/span><\/a>.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Several weeks ago, we discussed point by point trading in the WTA, primarily looking at laying the player a break up and taking money out during a service game.\u00a0\u00a0As mentioned before, this allows more risk-averse traders to clear some or all liability at various in-game scorelines, and these were grouped into two brackets:-<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Small price movements: 1 Point Receiver Leads (no break point).\u00a0 This would be 0-15 and 15-30.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Larger price movements: 2+ Point Receiver Leads, or 1 point break point leads.\u00a0 This would be 0-30, 0-40, 15-40, 30-40 or 40-A.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0Typically, the price movement at 30-40 or 40-A will be bigger than at 0-15 or 15-30 due to the fact that it creates a break point opportunity for the receiver, whereas this is not the case at 0-15 or 15-30, which is why I have placed those scorelines in the second bracket.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0As with the WTA, I thought it would be pretty interesting to see how frequently these winning trade positions were hit during the average ATP match (with no game selection) in various sets.\u00a0\u00a0The following table shows the percentage small and larger price movements were achieved from a break down in the ATP, between 1st March and 30th April, 2015:-<\/span><\/p>\n<table cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">ATP 1\/3\/15 to 30\/4\/15<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Player Break Down<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Player Break Down<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Got to only<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Got to at least<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">0-15\/15-30<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">0-30\/15-40\/30-40\/40-A<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Total Situations<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Situations<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Yes<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">No<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Yes<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">2 Pts\/BP %<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">1 Point at least %<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Diff<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Set 1<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">307<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">137<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">43<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">94<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">170<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">55.4<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">69.4<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">14.0<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Set 2 S&amp;B<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">236<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">118<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">44<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">74<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">118<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">50.0<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">68.6<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">18.6<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Set 3<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">110<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">45<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">16<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">29<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">65<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">59.1<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">73.6<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">14.5<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Overall<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">653<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">300<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">103<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">197<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">353<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">54.1<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">69.8<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">15.8<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Firstly, I want to remind readers of the conclusions drawn in the WTA&#8230;<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">A one point lead (smaller price movement) was achieved quite consistently throughout the sets, with set two, unsurprisingly, slightly lower than sets one or three.\u00a0\u00a0Set one achieved the most success, with 78.4% of break leads going to at least 0-15 or 15-30.\u00a0 69.7% achieved a bigger price movement, so only 8.7% of smaller price movements did not make it to the bigger price movement.\u00a0This difference was almost doubled in set 2, from a set and break deficit, with a 15.3% difference between the smaller price movement percentage (74.0%) and the larger price movement percentage of 58.7%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">In this sample in the ATP, some dynamics were similar to the WTA and others different, which tends to be typical in most areas of trading analysis.\u00a0 Again, a one point lead was achieved quite consistently regardless of the set, and a set and break lead in set two was &#8211; unsurprisingly considering it is the most dominant match position &#8211; the lowest percentage.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">However, it wasn\u2019t set one that had the most successful for upward price movement from laying the break leader in the ATP, it was set three, generating 73.6% of winning trades for one point movement, and 59.1% for a 2 point\/break point movement.\u00a0 Given this, laying the ATP break leader (particularly with game selection) in set three, looks to be a very solid prospect.\u00a0Despite this different dynamic, similarity between the ATP and WTA was also achieved by looking at the difference between smaller and bigger scoreline movements, where again set two had the biggest difference (18.6%), over 4% bigger than set one (14.0%) and set three (14.5%).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">How does this affect the way we trade ATP matches?<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">As with the WTA, we can use this information to help work out optimal exit points.\u00a0 We would want to clear a bigger percentage of liability from a small movement when laying a set and break leader in set two, than in sets one and three, a very similar situation to the WTA.\u00a0 Given this knowledge, we\u2019d be keener to hold a bigger liability when a smaller movement is achieved in sets one and three, knowing that it converts to a bigger movement more often.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Furthermore, as mentioned above, laying the break leader in set three in the ATP looks to be a very solid prospect, and with decent game selection (picking out players who are vulnerable on serve or when a break up), I\u2019d expect smaller point movements to be achieved over 80%, and larger ones at 65% at minimum.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sellmymobile.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/06\/Wimbledon.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"660\" height=\"440\" \/><\/p>\n<div class=\"pvc_clear\"><\/div>\n<p id=\"pvc_stats_10965\" class=\"pvc_stats all  \" data-element-id=\"10965\" style=\"\"><i class=\"pvc-stats-icon medium\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" data-prefix=\"far\" data-icon=\"chart-bar\" role=\"img\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 512 512\" class=\"svg-inline--fa fa-chart-bar fa-w-16 fa-2x\"><path fill=\"currentColor\" d=\"M396.8 352h22.4c6.4 0 12.8-6.4 12.8-12.8V108.8c0-6.4-6.4-12.8-12.8-12.8h-22.4c-6.4 0-12.8 6.4-12.8 12.8v230.4c0 6.4 6.4 12.8 12.8 12.8zm-192 0h22.4c6.4 0 12.8-6.4 12.8-12.8V140.8c0-6.4-6.4-12.8-12.8-12.8h-22.4c-6.4 0-12.8 6.4-12.8 12.8v198.4c0 6.4 6.4 12.8 12.8 12.8zm96 0h22.4c6.4 0 12.8-6.4 12.8-12.8V204.8c0-6.4-6.4-12.8-12.8-12.8h-22.4c-6.4 0-12.8 6.4-12.8 12.8v134.4c0 6.4 6.4 12.8 12.8 12.8zM496 400H48V80c0-8.84-7.16-16-16-16H16C7.16 64 0 71.16 0 80v336c0 17.67 14.33 32 32 32h464c8.84 0 16-7.16 16-16v-16c0-8.84-7.16-16-16-16zm-387.2-48h22.4c6.4 0 12.8-6.4 12.8-12.8v-70.4c0-6.4-6.4-12.8-12.8-12.8h-22.4c-6.4 0-12.8 6.4-12.8 12.8v70.4c0 6.4 6.4 12.8 12.8 12.8z\" class=\"\"><\/path><\/svg><\/i> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"16\" height=\"16\" alt=\"Loading\" src=\"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/wp-content\/plugins\/page-views-count\/ajax-loader-2x.gif\" border=0 \/><\/p>\n<div class=\"pvc_clear\"><\/div>\n\n<div class=\"twitter-share\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?via=betangel\" class=\"twitter-share-button\">Tweet<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Many Thanks to\u00a0Dan Weston\u00a0who was the guest poster for this article, visit Dan&#8217;s excellent\u00a0Tennis ratings site for lots of useful Tennis stats. Several weeks ago, we discussed point by point trading in the WTA, primarily looking at laying the player a break up and taking money out during a service game.\u00a0\u00a0As mentioned before, this allows [&hellip;]<\/p>\n<div class=\"pvc_clear\"><\/div>\n<p id=\"pvc_stats_10965\" class=\"pvc_stats all  \" data-element-id=\"10965\" style=\"\"><i class=\"pvc-stats-icon medium\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" data-prefix=\"far\" data-icon=\"chart-bar\" role=\"img\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 512 512\" class=\"svg-inline--fa fa-chart-bar fa-w-16 fa-2x\"><path fill=\"currentColor\" d=\"M396.8 352h22.4c6.4 0 12.8-6.4 12.8-12.8V108.8c0-6.4-6.4-12.8-12.8-12.8h-22.4c-6.4 0-12.8 6.4-12.8 12.8v230.4c0 6.4 6.4 12.8 12.8 12.8zm-192 0h22.4c6.4 0 12.8-6.4 12.8-12.8V140.8c0-6.4-6.4-12.8-12.8-12.8h-22.4c-6.4 0-12.8 6.4-12.8 12.8v198.4c0 6.4 6.4 12.8 12.8 12.8zm96 0h22.4c6.4 0 12.8-6.4 12.8-12.8V204.8c0-6.4-6.4-12.8-12.8-12.8h-22.4c-6.4 0-12.8 6.4-12.8 12.8v134.4c0 6.4 6.4 12.8 12.8 12.8zM496 400H48V80c0-8.84-7.16-16-16-16H16C7.16 64 0 71.16 0 80v336c0 17.67 14.33 32 32 32h464c8.84 0 16-7.16 16-16v-16c0-8.84-7.16-16-16-16zm-387.2-48h22.4c6.4 0 12.8-6.4 12.8-12.8v-70.4c0-6.4-6.4-12.8-12.8-12.8h-22.4c-6.4 0-12.8 6.4-12.8 12.8v70.4c0 6.4 6.4 12.8 12.8 12.8z\" class=\"\"><\/path><\/svg><\/i> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"16\" height=\"16\" alt=\"Loading\" src=\"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/wp-content\/plugins\/page-views-count\/ajax-loader-2x.gif\" border=0 \/><\/p>\n<div class=\"pvc_clear\"><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":407,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1358,1422],"tags":[18,9,170,68],"class_list":["post-10965","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tennis_trading_betting","category-strategies-2","tag-betfair","tag-tennis","tag-tennis-trading","tag-trading"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10965"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/407"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10965"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10965\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10969,"href":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10965\/revisions\/10969"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10965"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10965"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10965"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}