{"id":10882,"date":"2015-05-22T12:05:21","date_gmt":"2015-05-22T11:05:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.betangel.com\/blog_wp\/?p=10882"},"modified":"2015-06-11T17:33:43","modified_gmt":"2015-06-11T16:33:43","slug":"game-tennis-trading","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/2015\/05\/22\/game-tennis-trading\/","title":{"rendered":"In-game Tennis Trading"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">One of the beauties of Tennis trading is that there are many possible approaches which can all be successful, with some traders preferring to be exposed to risk, with others keener to take a more risk averse approach.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">When laying a server, or the player a break up, we have previously discussed trading out if and when the break occurs.\u00a0 However for the purpose of this article, I want to look at taking money out during a service game.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">To make matters slightly easier, I\u2019ve grouped in-game scorelines into two brackets:-<\/span><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Small price movements: 1 Point Receiver Leads (no break point).\u00a0 <em>This would be 0-15 and 15-30.<\/em><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Larger price movements: 2+ Point Receiver Leads, or 1 point break point leads.\u00a0 <em>This would be 0-30, 0-40, 15-40, 30-40 or 40-A.<\/em><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Typically, the price movement at 30-40 or 40-A will be bigger than at 0-15 or 15-30 due to the fact that it creates a break point opportunity for the receiver, whereas this is not the case at 0-15 or 15-30, which is why I have placed those scorelines in the second bracket.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">I thought it would be pretty interesting to see how frequently these winning trade positions were hit during the average match (with no game selection) in various sets.\u00a0 However, before moving onto the actual stats, I will say that each set tends to have different dynamics.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">My Game State spreadsheets illustrate this &#8211; for example, in the entire 2014 WTA season, the player a break down recovered the first break in the first set 52.8% of the time.\u00a0 However, in the second set, when a player was a set and break down, this deficit was recovered just 40.3% of the time.\u00a0 In the final set, this figure rose to the highest of all sets, 54.1%.\u00a0It is not entirely surprising that the second set, from a set and break position, was the lowest percentage, as this position exhibits the most dominance from all three scenarios.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">The following table shows the percentage small and larger price movements were achieved from a break down in the WTA, in January 2015:-<\/span><\/p>\n<table cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">WTA Jan 2015<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Player Break Down<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Player Break Down<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Got to only<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Got to at least<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">0-15\/15-30<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">0-30\/15-40\/30-40\/40-A<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Total Situations<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Situations<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Yes<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">No<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Yes<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">2 Pts\/BP %<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">1 Point at least %<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Difference<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Set 1<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">208<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">63<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">18<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">45<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">145<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">69.7<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">78.4<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">8.7<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Set 2 S&amp;B<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">150<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">62<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">23<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">39<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">88<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">58.7<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">74.0<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">15.3<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Set 3<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">74<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">26<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">8<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">18<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">48<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">64.9<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">75.7<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">10.8<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Overall<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">432<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">151<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">49<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">102<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">281<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">65.0<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">76.4<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">11.3<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">The sample is quite revealing.\u00a0 A one point lead (smaller price movement) was achieved quite consistently throughout the sets, with set two, unsurprisingly, slightly lower than sets one or three.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0Set one achieved the most success, with 78.4% of break leads going to at least 0-15 or 15-30.\u00a0 69.7% achieved a bigger price movement, so only 8.7% of smaller price movements did not make it to the bigger price movement.\u00a0This difference was almost doubled in set 2, from a set and break deficit, with a 15.3% difference between the smaller price movement percentage (74.0%) and the larger price movement percentage of 58.7%.\u00a0<strong>How does this affect the way we trade?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">We can use this information to help work out optimal exit points &#8211; for example, with the smallest difference between smaller and larger price movements in set one, we can look to hold on for larger price movements, knowing they are almost always achieved from a smaller price movement situation.\u00a0Conversely, at a scoreline like 0-15 or 15-30 from a set and break deficit in set two, we may wish to clear a decent amount of liability, knowing that these scenarios develop to a larger price movement much less frequently.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0This is a pretty decent example of what traders can achieve just throwing an hour or two at some research with trading applications &#8211; something I\u2019d recommend all to do.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong style=\"color: #000000;\"><em>Many Thanks to\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennisratings.co.uk\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Dan Weston<\/span><\/a>\u00a0who was the guest poster for this article, visit Dan&#8217;s excellent\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennisratings.co.uk\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Tennis ratings site for lots of useful Tennis stats<\/span><\/a>.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.betangel.com\/blog_wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Game-grid.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-10887 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.betangel.com\/blog_wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Game-grid-600x474.png\" alt=\"Game grid\" width=\"600\" height=\"474\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Game-grid-600x474.png 600w, https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Game-grid-300x237.png 300w, https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Game-grid.png 748w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"pvc_clear\"><\/div>\n<p id=\"pvc_stats_10882\" class=\"pvc_stats all  \" data-element-id=\"10882\" style=\"\"><i class=\"pvc-stats-icon medium\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" data-prefix=\"far\" data-icon=\"chart-bar\" role=\"img\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 512 512\" class=\"svg-inline--fa fa-chart-bar fa-w-16 fa-2x\"><path fill=\"currentColor\" d=\"M396.8 352h22.4c6.4 0 12.8-6.4 12.8-12.8V108.8c0-6.4-6.4-12.8-12.8-12.8h-22.4c-6.4 0-12.8 6.4-12.8 12.8v230.4c0 6.4 6.4 12.8 12.8 12.8zm-192 0h22.4c6.4 0 12.8-6.4 12.8-12.8V140.8c0-6.4-6.4-12.8-12.8-12.8h-22.4c-6.4 0-12.8 6.4-12.8 12.8v198.4c0 6.4 6.4 12.8 12.8 12.8zm96 0h22.4c6.4 0 12.8-6.4 12.8-12.8V204.8c0-6.4-6.4-12.8-12.8-12.8h-22.4c-6.4 0-12.8 6.4-12.8 12.8v134.4c0 6.4 6.4 12.8 12.8 12.8zM496 400H48V80c0-8.84-7.16-16-16-16H16C7.16 64 0 71.16 0 80v336c0 17.67 14.33 32 32 32h464c8.84 0 16-7.16 16-16v-16c0-8.84-7.16-16-16-16zm-387.2-48h22.4c6.4 0 12.8-6.4 12.8-12.8v-70.4c0-6.4-6.4-12.8-12.8-12.8h-22.4c-6.4 0-12.8 6.4-12.8 12.8v70.4c0 6.4 6.4 12.8 12.8 12.8z\" class=\"\"><\/path><\/svg><\/i> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"16\" height=\"16\" alt=\"Loading\" src=\"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/wp-content\/plugins\/page-views-count\/ajax-loader-2x.gif\" border=0 \/><\/p>\n<div class=\"pvc_clear\"><\/div>\n\n<div class=\"twitter-share\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?via=betangel\" class=\"twitter-share-button\">Tweet<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>One of the beauties of Tennis trading is that there are many possible approaches which can all be successful, with some traders preferring to be exposed to risk, with others keener to take a more risk averse approach. When laying a server, or the player a break up, we have previously discussed trading out if [&hellip;]<\/p>\n<div class=\"pvc_clear\"><\/div>\n<p id=\"pvc_stats_10882\" class=\"pvc_stats all  \" data-element-id=\"10882\" style=\"\"><i class=\"pvc-stats-icon medium\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" data-prefix=\"far\" data-icon=\"chart-bar\" role=\"img\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 512 512\" class=\"svg-inline--fa fa-chart-bar fa-w-16 fa-2x\"><path fill=\"currentColor\" d=\"M396.8 352h22.4c6.4 0 12.8-6.4 12.8-12.8V108.8c0-6.4-6.4-12.8-12.8-12.8h-22.4c-6.4 0-12.8 6.4-12.8 12.8v230.4c0 6.4 6.4 12.8 12.8 12.8zm-192 0h22.4c6.4 0 12.8-6.4 12.8-12.8V140.8c0-6.4-6.4-12.8-12.8-12.8h-22.4c-6.4 0-12.8 6.4-12.8 12.8v198.4c0 6.4 6.4 12.8 12.8 12.8zm96 0h22.4c6.4 0 12.8-6.4 12.8-12.8V204.8c0-6.4-6.4-12.8-12.8-12.8h-22.4c-6.4 0-12.8 6.4-12.8 12.8v134.4c0 6.4 6.4 12.8 12.8 12.8zM496 400H48V80c0-8.84-7.16-16-16-16H16C7.16 64 0 71.16 0 80v336c0 17.67 14.33 32 32 32h464c8.84 0 16-7.16 16-16v-16c0-8.84-7.16-16-16-16zm-387.2-48h22.4c6.4 0 12.8-6.4 12.8-12.8v-70.4c0-6.4-6.4-12.8-12.8-12.8h-22.4c-6.4 0-12.8 6.4-12.8 12.8v70.4c0 6.4 6.4 12.8 12.8 12.8z\" class=\"\"><\/path><\/svg><\/i> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"16\" height=\"16\" alt=\"Loading\" src=\"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/wp-content\/plugins\/page-views-count\/ajax-loader-2x.gif\" border=0 \/><\/p>\n<div class=\"pvc_clear\"><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":407,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1358,1422],"tags":[2116,170],"class_list":["post-10882","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tennis_trading_betting","category-strategies-2","tag-ingame","tag-tennis-trading"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10882"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/407"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10882"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10882\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10890,"href":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10882\/revisions\/10890"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10882"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10882"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10882"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}