{"id":10871,"date":"2015-05-15T12:26:43","date_gmt":"2015-05-15T11:26:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.betangel.com\/blog_wp\/?p=10871"},"modified":"2015-05-15T12:30:02","modified_gmt":"2015-05-15T11:30:02","slug":"laying-set-one-winner","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/2015\/05\/15\/laying-set-one-winner\/","title":{"rendered":"Laying the Set One Winner"},"content":{"rendered":"

It doesn’t need much explaining that in a best of three set Tennis match, players need to win two sets to win, and once they have won the first set, they are 50% of the way towards the number of sets they need to claim to win the match.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0Due to this, a player\u2019s price will be significantly shorter than starting price when they win the first set, which is a lay entry point that many traders like.<\/span><\/p>\n

Personally I feel this spot is a little over-rated by some traders, with there being a tendency to for people to think that this is a superb entry given that a heavy favourite is a much bigger price than pre-match and frequently are odds-against.\u00a0 There is almost an expectation that the shock of losing the first set will galvanise the higher-rated player into action, and they will steamroller the opposition from this point.<\/span><\/p>\n

Let me tell you, this is far from guaranteed.\u00a0 In 2014 in the ATP, players with SP <1.50 who lost the first set took the first break of set two just 54.2% of the time.\u00a0 Whilst this indicates that heavy favourites are slightly more likely to take the first break of set two than not, it\u2019s far from what many will expect, and that\u2019s without even discussing the dubious risk\/reward ratio of such a trade.<\/span><\/p>\n

In addition to this, some players react very different to adversity than others, and illustrates yet again why a detailed assessment of player tendencies is critical in Tennis trading.\u00a0 This research is something that I\u2019ve spent a lot of time on recently, and I now have detailed player statistics on a number of metrics, including the percentages players gain the first break in set two having lost set one, as I alluded to earlier.<\/span><\/p>\n

The following players had the best stats for gaining the first break in set two having lost set one from 1st July, 2014 to 13th May, 2015 (minimum 9 first set losses):-<\/span><\/p>\n