{"id":10851,"date":"2015-05-07T12:41:47","date_gmt":"2015-05-07T11:41:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.betangel.com\/blog_wp\/?p=10851"},"modified":"2015-05-15T12:27:33","modified_gmt":"2015-05-15T11:27:33","slug":"trading-tennis-dominant-sets-atp-masters-1000-events","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/2015\/05\/07\/trading-tennis-dominant-sets-atp-masters-1000-events\/","title":{"rendered":"Tennis – Dominant Sets in ATP Masters Events"},"content":{"rendered":"

A popular form of trading is laying the player a break up<\/strong> – I\u2019ve written a great deal about it before, and the positive aspects of this type of trade is that it\u2019s easily quantifiable (using projected hold and break lead\/deficit loss\/recovery statistics) and that risk is much more limited than taking a position when the set is on serve.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0The worst result for this type of trade is when the player you have opposed turns a single break lead into a double break lead<\/strong>, as the tick loss will naturally be higher.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0On this basis, I endeavoured to assess whether there were certain conditions which created a scenario where a double break set was more likely<\/strong>.\u00a0 I quantified this as a 6-0, 6-1 or 6-2 set result, where a double (or in rare cases, triple) break set victory was guaranteed.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0I looked at the ATP Masters 1000 events in 2014 to make a statistical comparison, and the results can be seen below:-<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
ATP Masters Tournaments<\/span><\/td>\n2014 Data<\/span><\/td>\n6-0 to 6-2 Sets<\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n1st\/2nd Round<\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n3rd Round +<\/span><\/td>\n3rd Round +<\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Event<\/span><\/td>\nSurface<\/span><\/td>\nCompleted Sets<\/span><\/td>\nYes<\/span><\/td>\nNo<\/span><\/td>\n%<\/span><\/td>\n\n

10<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

Yes<\/span><\/td>\nNo<\/span><\/td>\n%<\/span><\/td>\nOverall %<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Madrid<\/span><\/td>\nClay<\/span><\/td>\n\n

95<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

28<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

67<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

29.5<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

30<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

24<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

20.0<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

27.2<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Toronto<\/span><\/td>\nHard<\/span><\/td>\n\n

97<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

19<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

78<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

19.6<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

37<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

3<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

34<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

8.1<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

16.4<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Shanghai<\/span><\/td>\nHard<\/span><\/td>\n\n

95<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

18<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

77<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

18.9<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

35<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

25<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

28.6<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

21.5<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Rome<\/span><\/td>\nClay<\/span><\/td>\n\n

89<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

20<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

69<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

22.5<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

38<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

14<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

24<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

36.8<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

26.8<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Cincinnati<\/span><\/td>\nHard<\/span><\/td>\n\n

97<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

17<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

80<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

17.5<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

38<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

13<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

25<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

34.2<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

22.2<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Paris<\/span><\/td>\nIndoor Hard<\/span><\/td>\n\n

74<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

19<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

55<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

25.7<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

35<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

29<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

17.1<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

22.9<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Miami<\/span><\/td>\nHard<\/span><\/td>\n\n

153<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

36<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

117<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

23.5<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

63<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

15<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

48<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

23.8<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

23.6<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Monte Carlo<\/span><\/td>\nClay<\/span><\/td>\n\n

95<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

36<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

59<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

37.9<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

33<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

14<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

19<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

42.4<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

39.1<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Indian Wells<\/span><\/td>\nHard<\/span><\/td>\n\n

152<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

40<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

112<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

26.3<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

78<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

20<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

58<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

25.6<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

26.1<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Overall<\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\n

947<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

233<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

714<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

24.6<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

387<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

101<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

286<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

26.1<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

25.0<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Hard\/Indoor<\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\n

668<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

149<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

519<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

22.3<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

286<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

67<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

219<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

23.4<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

22.6<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Clay<\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\n

279<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

84<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

195<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

30.1<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

101<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

34<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

67<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

33.7<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

31.1<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Quite surprisingly, there were slightly fewer dominant set wins in the first and second round of tournaments<\/strong>.\u00a0 This, on the surface, is quite strange as it would be logical to assume that the ability differential between players was highest here.\u00a0 However, it also features players who tend to be weaker on serve, and frequent chokers, and this may be a contributory factor.<\/span><\/p>\n

The main striking difference was the propensity for clay events to have much higher 6-0 to 6-2 set wins than hard or indoor hard court<\/strong>.\u00a0 2014 Clay Masters 1000 events had 7.8% more dominant sets than those on hard or indoor hard in the first two rounds, and 10.3% in the later stages of events, which generated an 8.5% greater figure overall.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0On this basis, laying players a break up on clay is a much riskier prospect than on hard courts<\/strong>, and this type of trade should be considered more carefully on the dirt.<\/span><\/p>\n

This analysis is a superb example of useful data that can be generated in a short space of time – it took me around half an hour to compile the above table.\u00a0 Hopefully it will inspire a few readers to undertake some research for their own trading.<\/span><\/p>\n

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A popular form of trading is laying the player a break up – I\u2019ve written a great deal about it before, and the positive aspects of this type of trade is that it\u2019s easily quantifiable (using projected hold and break lead\/deficit loss\/recovery statistics) and that risk is much more limited than taking a position when […]<\/p>\n

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