{"id":10780,"date":"2015-04-16T20:23:36","date_gmt":"2015-04-16T19:23:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.betangel.com\/blog_wp\/?p=10780"},"modified":"2015-04-23T18:11:37","modified_gmt":"2015-04-23T17:11:37","slug":"court-speed-tennis-trading","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/2015\/04\/16\/court-speed-tennis-trading\/","title":{"rendered":"Court Speed in Tennis Trading"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Recently on Twitter, there has been detailed conversation about court speed, and the impact that it has in Tennis.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">As a trader, let me make one point abundantly clear here &#8211; I don\u2019t care why the conditions at a venue is fast or slow, just that it will be, and that it is possible to ascertain this information in advance.\u00a0 Advance knowledge of conditions will enable me to work out the likelihood of players holding serve, and a fast hard court could have over 10% influence over a slow hard court, for example.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Ex-player and Sky Sports commentator Rob Koenig tweeted on Monday that a rating, known as the CPR Rating, assessed the ATP 1000 Masters surfaces in the following order, from fast to slow, using 2014 data:-<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/RobKoenigTennis\/status\/587561221370544128\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/RobKoenigTennis\/status\/587561221370544128<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Shanghai<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Toronto<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Paris<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Indian Wells<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Miami<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Cincinnati<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Rome<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Madrid<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Monte Carlo<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">This caught my attention &#8211; effectively the surface this week, Monte Carlo, has been assessed as the slowest Masters 1000 surface.\u00a0 I was quite surprised at this, for several reasons:-<\/span><\/p>\n<ol style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">I know for sure that recent hard court tournaments Indian Wells and Miami, played in March, have a bigger negative deviance to the mean than Monte Carlo.\u00a0 To explain further, Indian Wells and Miami are relatively slower to the hard court mean than Monte Carlo &#8211; a medium-slow court according to my records &#8211; is compared to the clay court mean.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">There are many slower clay venues than Monte Carlo on the ATP Tour.\u00a0 Casablanca and Umag are several examples.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">I assess court speed by looking at the percentage of historical service holds compared to the surface mean.\u00a0 It\u2019s not a perfect strategy, as it can be influenced by a tournament\u2019s entry list, but it\u2019s as good as it gets.\u00a0 Certainly, a Masters 1000 field is likely to have a very consistent entry list with very few players skipping these lucrative events without being injured.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Using this metric, I generated the following order for the Masters 1000 events, compared to the relevant surface mean:-<\/span><\/p>\n<table cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">ATP Masters Tournaments<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">2014 Data<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Event<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Surface<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Service Hold %<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Surface Average Hold %<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Difference %<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Madrid<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Clay<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">80.5<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">75.7<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">4.8<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Toronto<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Hard<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">83.5<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">80.1<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">3.4<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Shanghai<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Hard<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">82.9<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">80.1<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">2.8<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Rome<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Clay<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">77.2<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">75.7<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">1.5<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Cincinnati<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Hard<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">80.3<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">80.1<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">0.2<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Paris<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Indoor Hard<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">80.8<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">80.7<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">0.1<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Miami<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Hard<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">79.4<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">80.1<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">-0.7<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Monte Carlo<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Clay<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">74.3<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">75.7<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">-1.4<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Indian Wells<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">Hard<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">78.2<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">80.1<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p align=\"right\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Helvetica;\">-1.9<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Looking at this, the CPR Rating seems to be quite random!\u00a0 Shanghai, their quickest event, is indeed fast on my speed ratings, and so is Toronto, their second fastest, although I have them the other way around.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">However it is the slower events which seem to be very different &#8211; Indian Wells and Miami are very slow hard courts and ranked below Cincinnati for speed, which isn\u2019t the case with the CPR Ratings at all.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Furthermore, their ratings have the clay court events slowest, which is where I begin to understand how they work\u2026<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Madrid and Rome are traditionally fast clay court venues, so it appears that they have merely looked at the speed data without actually accounting for the surface.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Of course hard and indoor hard courts are likely to play faster than clay &#8211; it\u2019s a quicker surface!\u00a0 But readers of the CPR Rating tweet &#8211; and there were plenty as it has currently been retweeted 75 times &#8211; will automatically assume Madrid and Rome are slow courts, which isn\u2019t the case at all!\u00a0 Trading thinking these events are slow is incredibly misleading and will undoubtedly lead to the poor house, which immediately illustrates the danger of trading using seemingly relevant\u00a0stats at face value without thinking deeper about how they have been generated.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong style=\"color: #000000;\"><em>Many Thanks to\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennisratings.co.uk\">Dan Weston<\/a>\u00a0who was the guest poster for this article, visit Dan&#8217;s excellent\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennisratings.co.uk\">Tennis ratings site for lots of useful Tennis stats<\/a>.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i.telegraph.co.uk\/multimedia\/archive\/02195\/andy_murray_2195551b.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"620\" height=\"388\" \/><\/p>\n<div class=\"pvc_clear\"><\/div>\n<p id=\"pvc_stats_10780\" class=\"pvc_stats all  \" data-element-id=\"10780\" style=\"\"><i class=\"pvc-stats-icon medium\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" data-prefix=\"far\" data-icon=\"chart-bar\" role=\"img\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 512 512\" class=\"svg-inline--fa fa-chart-bar fa-w-16 fa-2x\"><path fill=\"currentColor\" d=\"M396.8 352h22.4c6.4 0 12.8-6.4 12.8-12.8V108.8c0-6.4-6.4-12.8-12.8-12.8h-22.4c-6.4 0-12.8 6.4-12.8 12.8v230.4c0 6.4 6.4 12.8 12.8 12.8zm-192 0h22.4c6.4 0 12.8-6.4 12.8-12.8V140.8c0-6.4-6.4-12.8-12.8-12.8h-22.4c-6.4 0-12.8 6.4-12.8 12.8v198.4c0 6.4 6.4 12.8 12.8 12.8zm96 0h22.4c6.4 0 12.8-6.4 12.8-12.8V204.8c0-6.4-6.4-12.8-12.8-12.8h-22.4c-6.4 0-12.8 6.4-12.8 12.8v134.4c0 6.4 6.4 12.8 12.8 12.8zM496 400H48V80c0-8.84-7.16-16-16-16H16C7.16 64 0 71.16 0 80v336c0 17.67 14.33 32 32 32h464c8.84 0 16-7.16 16-16v-16c0-8.84-7.16-16-16-16zm-387.2-48h22.4c6.4 0 12.8-6.4 12.8-12.8v-70.4c0-6.4-6.4-12.8-12.8-12.8h-22.4c-6.4 0-12.8 6.4-12.8 12.8v70.4c0 6.4 6.4 12.8 12.8 12.8z\" class=\"\"><\/path><\/svg><\/i> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"16\" height=\"16\" alt=\"Loading\" src=\"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/wp-content\/plugins\/page-views-count\/ajax-loader-2x.gif\" border=0 \/><\/p>\n<div class=\"pvc_clear\"><\/div>\n\n<div class=\"twitter-share\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?via=betangel\" class=\"twitter-share-button\">Tweet<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Recently on Twitter, there has been detailed conversation about court speed, and the impact that it has in Tennis. As a trader, let me make one point abundantly clear here &#8211; I don\u2019t care why the conditions at a venue is fast or slow, just that it will be, and that it is possible to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n<div class=\"pvc_clear\"><\/div>\n<p id=\"pvc_stats_10780\" class=\"pvc_stats all  \" data-element-id=\"10780\" style=\"\"><i class=\"pvc-stats-icon medium\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" data-prefix=\"far\" data-icon=\"chart-bar\" role=\"img\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 512 512\" class=\"svg-inline--fa fa-chart-bar fa-w-16 fa-2x\"><path fill=\"currentColor\" d=\"M396.8 352h22.4c6.4 0 12.8-6.4 12.8-12.8V108.8c0-6.4-6.4-12.8-12.8-12.8h-22.4c-6.4 0-12.8 6.4-12.8 12.8v230.4c0 6.4 6.4 12.8 12.8 12.8zm-192 0h22.4c6.4 0 12.8-6.4 12.8-12.8V140.8c0-6.4-6.4-12.8-12.8-12.8h-22.4c-6.4 0-12.8 6.4-12.8 12.8v198.4c0 6.4 6.4 12.8 12.8 12.8zm96 0h22.4c6.4 0 12.8-6.4 12.8-12.8V204.8c0-6.4-6.4-12.8-12.8-12.8h-22.4c-6.4 0-12.8 6.4-12.8 12.8v134.4c0 6.4 6.4 12.8 12.8 12.8zM496 400H48V80c0-8.84-7.16-16-16-16H16C7.16 64 0 71.16 0 80v336c0 17.67 14.33 32 32 32h464c8.84 0 16-7.16 16-16v-16c0-8.84-7.16-16-16-16zm-387.2-48h22.4c6.4 0 12.8-6.4 12.8-12.8v-70.4c0-6.4-6.4-12.8-12.8-12.8h-22.4c-6.4 0-12.8 6.4-12.8 12.8v70.4c0 6.4 6.4 12.8 12.8 12.8z\" class=\"\"><\/path><\/svg><\/i> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"16\" height=\"16\" alt=\"Loading\" src=\"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/wp-content\/plugins\/page-views-count\/ajax-loader-2x.gif\" border=0 \/><\/p>\n<div class=\"pvc_clear\"><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":407,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1358,1422],"tags":[2107,122,746,9,68],"class_list":["post-10780","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tennis_trading_betting","category-strategies-2","tag-court","tag-speed","tag-strategies","tag-tennis","tag-trading"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10780"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/407"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10780"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10780\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10790,"href":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10780\/revisions\/10790"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10780"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10780"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10780"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}