{"id":10768,"date":"2015-04-14T09:03:38","date_gmt":"2015-04-14T08:03:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.betangel.com\/blog_wp\/?p=10768"},"modified":"2015-04-19T13:35:10","modified_gmt":"2015-04-19T12:35:10","slug":"finding-value-in-a-football-match","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/2015\/04\/14\/finding-value-in-a-football-match\/","title":{"rendered":"Finding value in a football match"},"content":{"rendered":"

Not so long ago I tweeted the following: –<\/span><\/p>\n

\"11-04-2015<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Tonight Bournemouth play Reading away but there is an interesting metric going on tonight. Reading are reasonably, though not entirely clear, of relegation in the Championship. But more importantly they are only 90 minutes away from an FA Cup final.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bournemouth are in the position of being in complete control of their destiny at the top of the division. If they win every match remaining they will be in the premier league next year. So there is a strong incentive for Bournemouth to win here and not the same for Reading.<\/span><\/p>\n

Of course this depends on Reading’s manager resting players this evening, which looks likely<\/span><\/a>. My fingers will be ready for when the team sheet in announced this evening. Bournemouth will be fielding a strong team so any weakness in Reading will make the market correct and you can trade it. Bournemouth may be worth an outright punt from\u00a0a value perspective as well. If Steve Clarke fields a strong team then the market with revert to a much higher price. Get your fingers at the ready for a trade!<\/span><\/p>\n

But what value is there, how much will the market adjust?<\/span><\/p>\n

I can look at many, many metrics across a broad range but often it’s worth keeping things simple. So I scanned the database I have of previous matches and you start to ping out comparable matches. Matches that were priced the same in the past. Here is a shortlist: –<\/span><\/p>\n