{"id":10617,"date":"2015-03-14T14:28:54","date_gmt":"2015-03-14T14:28:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.betangel.com\/blog_wp\/?p=10617"},"modified":"2015-03-14T14:28:54","modified_gmt":"2015-03-14T14:28:54","slug":"has-manuel-pellegrini-got-manchester-citys-tactics-right","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/2015\/03\/14\/has-manuel-pellegrini-got-manchester-citys-tactics-right\/","title":{"rendered":"Has Manuel Pellegrini got Manchester City’s Tactics Right?"},"content":{"rendered":"
I’ve reproduce this article\u00a0courtesy\u00a0of <\/span>Football Form Labs<\/a>. It’s a nice piece.<\/span><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
Following\u00a0<\/span>Gary Neville\u2019s recent piece in The Telegraph on Manchester City\u2019s tactics in \u2018big games\u2019<\/span><\/a>,<\/span>we\u2019ve done some statistical analysis in relation to Neville\u2019s claims. Neville suggests that in big games if Yaya Toure plays with a central midfield partner, then Nasri and Silva can\u2019t both play, nor can City play with two strikers. Similarly if City opt to play Silva and Nasri, then Neville argues that they can\u2019t play Toure alongside another central midfielder, nor can they play two strikers.<\/span><\/div>\n


\nTo begin with, we simply looked at City\u2019s record this season and last when they played with two strikers at home and away and similarly when they went with just one up top at the Etihad and on the road.<\/span>
\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/colgroup>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Home\/Away<\/b><\/span><\/td>\nStrikers<\/b><\/span><\/td>\nGames<\/b><\/span><\/td>\nRecord<\/b><\/span><\/td>\nPPG<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Home<\/span><\/td>\n1<\/span><\/td>\n15<\/span><\/td>\nW12-D2-L1<\/span><\/td>\n2.47<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Home<\/span><\/td>\n2<\/span><\/td>\n37<\/span><\/td>\nW25-D4-L8<\/span><\/td>\n2.13<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Away<\/span><\/td>\n1<\/span><\/td>\n17<\/span><\/td>\nW8-D5-L4<\/span><\/td>\n1.71<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Away<\/span><\/td>\n2<\/span><\/td>\n27<\/span><\/td>\nW16-D6-L5<\/span><\/td>\n2<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n


This data suggests that City\u2019s results are better when they play with one striker at home and with two strikers away. However, these figures don\u2019t tell the whole story as they don\u2019t show who the opposition were in these games. One would expect Pellegrini to have deployed only one striker in the \u2018big matches\u2019 that are the subject of Gary Neville\u2019s article.<\/span>
\n<\/span>
\nIf we include under the umbrella of \u2018big games\u2019 matches against this season\u2019s current top-six (Chelsea, Arsenal, Man United, Liverpool, and Spurs) as well as their Champions League ties against Barcelona, Roma, and Bayern Munich, then City\u2019s stats at home and away with one striker or two are shown below with the \u2018big games\u2019 excluded.<\/span>
\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/colgroup>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Home\/Away<\/b><\/span><\/td>\nStrikers<\/b><\/span><\/td>\nGames<\/b><\/span><\/td>\nRecord<\/b><\/span><\/td>\nPPG<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Home<\/span><\/td>\n1<\/span><\/td>\n10<\/span><\/td>\nW9-D1-L0<\/span><\/td>\n2.8<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Home<\/span><\/td>\n2<\/span><\/td>\n26<\/span><\/td>\nW19-D2-L5<\/span><\/td>\n2.27<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Away<\/span><\/td>\n1<\/span><\/td>\n7<\/span><\/td>\nW5-D2-L0<\/span><\/td>\n2.43<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Away<\/span><\/td>\n2<\/span><\/td>\n25<\/span><\/td>\nW15-D6-L4<\/span><\/td>\n2.04<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n


These results are very interesting and show that City are better off playing with one striker both home and away, even in games that aren\u2019t against the top sides (although the sample size for away games with one striker is admittedly fairly small). Nonetheless, City are yet to lose a game at home or away in \u2018non-big games\u2019. It is, however, a tactic that they tend not to favour as they\u2019ve played with two strikers in 51 games since 13\/14, compared to one striker in just 17 matches.<\/span>
\n<\/span>
\nWe now turn our attention to the big games and City\u2019s home results in such matches are listed below according to whether they played one striker or two in these games.<\/span>
\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n<\/colgroup>\n\n\n\n\n
Strikers<\/b><\/span><\/td>\nGames<\/b><\/span><\/td>\nRecord<\/b><\/span><\/td>\nPPG<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1<\/span><\/td>\n5<\/span><\/td>\nW3-D0-L2<\/span><\/td>\n1.8<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/span><\/td>\n11<\/span><\/td>\nW6-D2-L3<\/span><\/td>\n1.82<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n


The record is very similar in terms of PPG, but what\u2019s noticeable is that the three defeats City endured when playing with two strikers were against Barcelona, Chelsea, and Bayern Munich, undoubtedly three of the best teams that Europe has to offer. In fact their home record suggests that they are successful regardless of whether they are playing one or two strikers but, against the very best sides, they are yet to find the answer.<\/span>
\n<\/span>
\nSince City only started with two strikers in two ‘big’ away games over this period, there\u2019s little point in comparing their away results with one or two up front. Instead we decided to look at some of City\u2019s attacking combinations in these \u2018big games\u2019. There are three main combinations that City tend to go with in these games, whether forced through injuries to some of these attacking players, or otherwise. Of these 28 big games, City started seven with Toure, Silva, Nasri and a lone striker, eight with Toure, Silva\/Nasri, and two strikers, and seven without Toure, one of Silva and Nasri, and one striker. The results with each combination are laid out below.<\/span>
\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Combination<\/b><\/span><\/td>\nMatches<\/b><\/span><\/td>\nWin<\/b><\/span><\/td>\nDraw<\/b><\/span><\/td>\nLoss<\/b><\/span><\/td>\nPPG<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Toure, Silva, Nasri, 1 striker<\/span><\/td>\n7<\/span><\/td>\n2<\/span><\/td>\n1<\/span><\/td>\n4<\/span><\/td>\n1.00<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Toure, Silva\/Nasri, 2 strikers<\/span><\/td>\n8<\/span><\/td>\n4<\/span><\/td>\n2<\/span><\/td>\n2<\/span><\/td>\n1.75<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Silva or Nasri, 1 striker<\/span><\/td>\n8<\/span><\/td>\n4<\/span><\/td>\n2<\/span><\/td>\n2<\/span><\/td>\n2.00<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Other<\/span><\/td>\n6<\/span><\/td>\n3<\/span><\/td>\n0<\/span><\/td>\n3<\/span><\/td>\n1.5<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\u00a0<\/span>
\nWhat\u2019s particularly striking is City\u2019s poor performance when they\u2019ve started with all their attacking options in midfield (ignoring number of strikers): Toure, Silva and Nasri, as they\u2019ve lost half of these 10 games (W4-D1-L5). However, all five of those defeats were on the road.<\/span>
\n<\/span>
\nConversely, they\u2019ve lost just two of eight matches when they\u2019ve adopted a more conservative approach with just one striker and only one of Silva and Nasri. Those defeats came against Barcelona last season and then recently, in January, against Arsenal, when Aguero had just returned from injury and City weren\u2019t in particularly good form. Furthermore, both of City\u2019s wins over Bayern Munich came when they adopted this approach and, despite it’s more conservative look, it still saw them score six goals over these two games.<\/span>
\n<\/span>
\nA closer look at City\u2019s team selections in these big\u00a0<\/span>away\u00a0<\/b><\/span>games further highlights the folly of picking both Nasri and Silva.<\/span>
\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Man City Away in Big Games<\/b><\/span><\/td>\nMatches<\/b><\/span><\/td>\nWin<\/b><\/span><\/td>\nDraw<\/b><\/span><\/td>\nLoss<\/b><\/span><\/td>\nPPG<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
With Toure<\/span><\/td>\n8<\/span><\/td>\n2<\/span><\/td>\n1<\/span><\/td>\n5<\/span><\/td>\n0.88<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
WO Toure<\/span><\/td>\n4<\/span><\/td>\n2<\/span><\/td>\n2<\/span><\/td>\n0<\/span><\/td>\n2.00<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2 Strikers<\/span><\/td>\n2<\/span><\/td>\n1<\/span><\/td>\n1<\/span><\/td>\n0<\/span><\/td>\n2.00<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1 Striker<\/span><\/td>\n10<\/span><\/td>\n3<\/span><\/td>\n2<\/span><\/td>\n5<\/span><\/td>\n1.10<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Both Nasri and Silva<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n7<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n1<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n1<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n5<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n0.57<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Just 1 of Nasri\/Silva<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n5<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n3<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n2<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n0<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n2.20<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\u00a0<\/span>
\nPellegrini\u2019s team selection ahead of their second leg with Barcelona will be fascinating as they try to claw back a 2-0 deficit from the first leg. It would be bold of him to leave one of Silva or Nasri, Toure, and Dzeko on the bench, but history suggests that City\u2019s best option \u2013 much as Neville suggests \u2013 is to play just one striker and to stiffen up the midfield.<\/span><\/p>\n

These stats are\u00a0brought to your by our friends over at\u00a0Football Form Labs<\/span><\/a>. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments<\/em><\/p>\n

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I’ve reproduce this article\u00a0courtesy\u00a0of Football Form Labs. It’s a nice piece. Following\u00a0Gary Neville\u2019s recent piece in The Telegraph on Manchester City\u2019s tactics in \u2018big games\u2019,we\u2019ve done some statistical analysis in relation to Neville\u2019s claims. Neville suggests that in big games if Yaya Toure plays with a central midfield partner, then Nasri and Silva can\u2019t both […]<\/p>\n

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