{"id":10406,"date":"2014-12-06T09:20:15","date_gmt":"2014-12-06T09:20:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.betangel.com\/blog_wp\/?p=10406"},"modified":"2014-12-06T09:20:15","modified_gmt":"2014-12-06T09:20:15","slug":"saturday-soccer-stats-17","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/2014\/12\/06\/saturday-soccer-stats-17\/","title":{"rendered":"Saturday Soccer Stats"},"content":{"rendered":"

These stats are\u00a0brought to your by our friends over at\u00a0Football Form Labs<\/span><\/a>. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments<\/em><\/p>\n

PREVIEW: Bayern v Bayer Leverkusen (Sat, 17:30)<\/span><\/b><\/span><\/div>\n

Bayern have conceded just one goal in their last 11 games and have won four of their last five home matches by at least four clear goals, so Leverkusen are facing an uphill battle as they head to the Allianz Arena.<\/span>
\n<\/span>
\nHowever, Leverkusen have put up a decent contest against the champions in the past two seasons as they won here in 2012 and their two defeats have been narrow 2-1 scores. Worryingly though for Bayer fans, they\u2019ve been starting relatively slowly this season as they\u2019ve got just the 10<\/span>th<\/sup><\/span>\u00a0best first-half record. That is in stark contrast to Bayern, who have been leading at half-time in 14 of their last 18 home games \u2013 only once failing to convert that into three points.<\/span>
\n<\/span>
\nBayern have so far played three of the other five teams in the top six and have actually only won once \u2013 2-1 against Wolfsburg on the opening day \u2013 and those games have seen just five goals. Similarly their win against Dortmund was only courtesy of a late comeback to finish 2-1. In the past three seasons eight of Bayern\u2019s 15 home matches against top-six finishers have had fewer than three goals while 12 have had fewer than four, and the goal-line for this match is closer to the latter.<\/span>
\n<\/span>
\nLeverkusen\u2019s away record isn\u2019t that strong as they\u2019ve lost nine of their 23 road matches since the start of last season. They are also not prolific scorers against the best teams having netted just five times in their six trips to top-six finishers last season and current top-six sides this term. 12 of their 23 away matches have had fewer than three goals and having kept four clean sheets in their last nine games overall they will be hopeful of keeping things relatively tight.<\/span>
\n<\/span>
\nBayern should, and most likely will, win here but Leverkusen look to have as good a chance as anyone in the Bundesliga of stopping them and they can at least limit the damage. Therefore\u00a0<\/span>they look worth supporting on the Asian Handicap +1.75 at 1.98<\/b><\/span>, so even if they lose by two we only lose half our bet.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

PREVIEW: Southampton v Man Utd (Mon, 20:00)<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

Man Utd head into their Monday night game against third-placed Southampton on a four match winning streak and with the chance to leapfrog their hosts, who are facing their first serious test under Ronald Koeman having lost back-to-back matches.<\/span>
\n<\/span>
\nThe Saints drew both matches against United last season but before that they\u2019d lost eight in a row against the Red Devils. Of more concern, however, will be the fact they\u2019ve scored just five goals in six games since putting eight past Sunderland. Given those goals came against Stoke, Hull, Leicester, and Aston Villa, it is clear their attack is struggling. Until defeats against Man City and Arsenal their defence had been making up for that fact, and in truth they were unfortunate to lose both games, but against United\u2019s attack they are likely to concede again at some point.<\/span>
\n<\/span>
\nSouthampton\u2019s record against the top seven last season was W2-D4-L8, including failing to win at home with three draws and three defeats, and one of their two wins was against a Liverpool side missing Luis Suarez. That pattern appears to be continuing this season as they\u2019ve lost all three of their matches against teams that finished above them last term.<\/span>
\n<\/span>
\nMan Utd drew half of their six away matches against sides that finished 4<\/span>th<\/sup><\/span>-10<\/span>th<\/sup><\/span>\u00a0last season, with just one win, and with the bookies unable to split the teams there looks to be some value in backing the draw here. However, team news looks to be favouring United, as while they are likely to welcome back Wayne Rooney and have the squad to handle their lengthy injury list, Southampton will be missing Morgan Schneiderlin, Toby Alderweireld, and possibly Jack Cork and Dusan Tadic.<\/span>
\n<\/span>
\nSchneiderlin\u2019s absence should allow United greater control in midfield and significantly Southampton have lost six of the 10 games he\u2019s failed to start since 2012\/13 (compared to losing 31% of 80 games he has started).\u00a0<\/span>Overall United\u2019s momentum and experience should give them the edge in this game and they look worth backing at 1.92 on the Draw No Bet.<\/b><\/span>
\n<\/span>
\nThe Over\/Under 2.5 Goals market looks about right with Southampton\u2019s trends leaning towards \u2018unders\u2019 and Man Utd\u2019s towards \u2018overs\u2019. However, six of Southampton\u2019s eight home games against the top seven last season and this have had between two and three goals.\u00a0<\/span>2.10 is available for the match to have 2-3 goals and that looks the best way to go in the goals markets.<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

\n
Player Analysis:<\/span><\/b><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
Using Form Lab Black\u2019s player analysis tool we\u2019ve looked at the English lower leagues and found three teams who will be missing important players in this round of matches and without them they look set to struggle.<\/span><\/div>\n
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N.B. Appearances mentioned below relate to starting and completing an hour unless otherwise specified.<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

Dortmund v Hoffenheim<\/b><\/span>
\nAdam Szalai, Forward, Hoffenheim<\/span>
\n<\/span>
\nSzalai has missed seven of Hoffenheim\u2019s 13 games this season and without him they\u2019ve scored just nine goals, four of which came in one game, as 4\/7 games have had fewer than three goals. With Dortmund also missing their best attacker \u2013 Marco Reus \u2013 this could be significantly lower scoring than expected and\u00a0<\/span>Under 2.5 Goals can be backed at 2.90<\/b><\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Borussia M\u2019gladbach v Hertha Berlin<\/b><\/span>
\nFabian Lustenberger, Midfielder, Hertha<\/span>
\n<\/span>
\nLustenberger has missed 18 of 47 games since the start of last season and Hertha have conceded 18% more goals per game without him than with him as their loss rate has risen from 41% to 56%. Furthermore, they\u2019ve picked up just two points from the 10 matches he\u2019s missed against top-half teams and we should see an easy home win here.\u00a0<\/span>Moenchengladbach may well cover the -2.5 Asian Handicap, which can be backed at 6.5.<\/b><\/span>
\n<\/span>
\n<\/span>Aston Villa v Leicester<\/b><\/span>
\nAndrea Weimann, Forward, Aston Villa<\/span>
\n<\/span><\/div>\n

<\/div>\n
Aston Villa have lost both games Weimann\u2019s missed this season 3-0 and they\u2019ve scored just two goals in their last seven games without the forward whilst picking up only one point, against last season\u2019s bottom club Cardiff.<\/span>\u00a0This doesn’t look like a classic and Under 1.5 Goals looks a decent price at 3.3.<\/span><\/div>\n
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These stats are\u00a0brought to your by our friends over at\u00a0Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments PREVIEW: Bayern v Bayer Leverkusen (Sat, 17:30) Bayern have conceded just one goal in their last 11 games and have won four of their last five home matches by at […]<\/p>\n

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