{"id":10237,"date":"2014-09-27T11:12:18","date_gmt":"2014-09-27T10:12:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.betangel.com\/blog_wp\/?p=10237"},"modified":"2014-09-27T11:12:18","modified_gmt":"2014-09-27T10:12:18","slug":"saturday-soccer-stats-10","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/2014\/09\/27\/saturday-soccer-stats-10\/","title":{"rendered":"Saturday Soccer Stats"},"content":{"rendered":"

These stats are\u00a0brought to your by our friends over at\u00a0Football Form Labs<\/a>. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.<\/em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

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PREVIEW: Liverpool v Everton (Sat, 12:45)<\/span><\/b><\/span><\/div>\n

The Merseyside Derby kicks off the Premier League weekend and if last season\u2019s meetings are anything to go by we\u2019ll be in for a cracker. Liverpool won this fixture 4-0 back in January while the first derby last season was a 3-3 at Goodison and Sturridge and Suarez scored in both matches.<\/span>
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\nWith Liverpool having lost three of their last four matches and Everton coming off a shock defeat at home against Crystal Palace this is a crucial game as both teams look to get some momentum and move up the table. Liverpool have won 17 of their 21 home games since the start of last season but the sale of Luis Suarez and the injury to Daniel Sturridge has clearly weakened them significantly in attack while their defensive vulnerabilities remain.<\/span>
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\nEverton have scored first in four of their opening five games so a return of just one win will be a huge disappointment as they\u2019ve conceded 13 times already. However, their away form since the latter part of last season is good with five wins and just one defeat in their last eight away games. Furthermore, in the past two seasons their record away to teams that finished 3<\/span>rd<\/sup><\/span>-7<\/span>th<\/sup><\/span>\u00a0is W1-D4-L3 and they look perfectly capable of avoiding defeat at Anfield, as they\u2019ve done in two of the past four seasons.\u00a0<\/span>With that in mind the 3.9 for the draw looks well worth taking,<\/b><\/span>\u00a0particularly as Liverpool have a crucial trip to Basel on Wednesday to think about and so may not risk the recovering Sturridge.<\/span>
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\nWith these two defences \u2018overs\u2019 will definitely be popular and it\u2019s hard to argue with. 15 of Liverpool\u2019s last 18 home games have had at least three goals with 12 having four or more strikes. However, six of Everton\u2019s eight trips to last season\u2019s top nine had fewer than three goals and we could be in for a more cautious derby than in recent meetings. It\u2019s worth waiting for the team news before getting involved in the goals markets but Liverpool have played just two games since the start of last season without Sturridge and Suarez\u00a0 – their last two matches \u2013 and they\u2019ve scored only once, so\u00a0<\/span>Under 2.5 Goals currently looks some value at 2.38<\/b><\/span>.<\/span><\/div>\n

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PREVIEW: Arsenal v Spurs (Sat, 16:00)<\/span><\/b><\/span><\/div>\n

Arsenal are one of only two teams to be unbeaten after five games but with three draws they are already four points off the pace and have been unimpressive so far. Spurs, meanwhile, have picked up just one point from their last three games and now face a very busy couple of months with Europa League alongside domestic commitments.<\/span>
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\nThe Gunners are unbeaten in their last 20 home games and while they\u2019ve rarely beaten the very best in recent seasons they\u2019ve been superb against teams just below the top level. Against teams that finished 5<\/span>th<\/sup><\/span>-10<\/span>th<\/sup><\/span>\u00a0in the past two seasons they\u2019ve W7-D4-L1 with six wins by more than one goal.<\/span>
\n<\/span>
\nSpurs, meanwhile, lost at each of the top four last season, including two 4-0 losses and a 6-0, and failed to score at any of the five teams that finished above them. Pochettino has been bought in to improve their performances in these games but Southampton lost eight of their 12 matches last season against the top six whilst conceding 2.17 goals per game.\u00a0<\/span>At 1.8 Arsenal are worth backing here<\/b><\/span>, particularly given their superb home record in the derby, and they are also worth supporting on the -1.5 Asian Handicap at about 3.0.<\/span>
\n<\/span>
\nNorth London derbies have a history of goals in recent seasons and both sides have been more \u2018overs\u2019 than \u2018unders\u2019 so far this term. Six of Arsenal\u2019s last eight home games have had at least three goals as have eight of Spurs\u2019 10 trips to top-six finishers in the past two seasons. While Pochettino didn\u2019t enjoy much success against the big boys last term his Southampton side were not afraid to attack in those matches and\u00a0<\/span>Over 2.5 Goals is a good price at 1.8.<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

Dirty Derbies Dirtier in Serie A:<\/span><\/b><\/div>\n

The Premier League is not the only league featuring major derbies this weekend as Schalke take on Dortmund in the Bundesliga and Genoa face Sampdoria in Italy. Out of the Big 5 leagues, Serie A comes second only to La Liga for the worst disciplinary record. In the past 11 years, there have been 4.49 yellow cards per game and 0.30 sending offs, accumulating 52.4 booking points. So if regular Serie A matches are this fiery, how dirty must their derbies be?<\/span>
\n<\/span>
\nWell it turns out very. In the three biggest Serie A derby matches (Milan derby, Genoa v Sampdoria, and Lazio v Roma), there have been, on average, 83.5 booking points per derby (56 derbies in last 11 years). That is the equivalent of more than three extra yellows, every derby match. The average Premier League derby game saw 42.7 booking points \u2013 less than one extra caution more than the average Premier League game. English derbies seem a bit timid in comparison.<\/span>
\n<\/span>
\nProbably the most famous Italian derby is the \u2018Derby della Madonnina\u2019 (<\/span>AC vs Inter<\/b><\/span>), played at the iconic San Siro. On average, this game produces 71.8 booking points, as well as a red card nearly every other match. This, however, is the \u2018tamest\u2019 of the biggest four derbies, despite having over 14 more booking points than the Premier League\u2019s dirtiest derby.<\/span>
\n<\/span>
\nWithout doubt, however, the most ill-tempered and fiery Italian derby in recent years is\u00a0<\/span>Genoa v Sampdoria<\/b><\/span>. A recent encounter in the 2009\/10 season, reached a staggering 200 booking points, involving four red cards, and ten bookings. This isn\u2019t an anomaly either. The season before, the derby produced 175 booking points. In the last six meetings where Genoa have been the nominal home team (they share the ground), five of the games have generated over 100 booking points and involved at least eight bookings and one red card, with an average of 130 booking points from the six derbies.\u00a0<\/span>A sending off this weekend can be backed at 2.6.<\/b><\/span>
\n<\/span>
\nThe other major derby is in the capital, between\u00a0<\/span>Roma and Lazio<\/b><\/span>. This, like the Genoa v Sampdoria derby, produces a tremendous amount of ill-discipline. In the last 11 years, none of the 22 Rome derbies have had fewer than 50 booking points. Moreover, in the last six seasons, the 12 derbies have averaged 104 booking points, with seven totals of over 100. 10 of these 12 games have seen a red card, and five have seen more than one player take an early shower.<\/span>
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These stats are\u00a0brought to your by our friends over at\u00a0Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.\u00a0 PREVIEW: Liverpool v Everton (Sat, 12:45) The Merseyside Derby kicks off the Premier League weekend and if last season\u2019s meetings are anything to go by we\u2019ll be in for a […]<\/p>\n

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