{"id":10221,"date":"2014-09-13T08:20:46","date_gmt":"2014-09-13T07:20:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.betangel.com\/blog_wp\/?p=10221"},"modified":"2014-10-18T07:06:37","modified_gmt":"2014-10-18T06:06:37","slug":"saturday-soccer-stats-8","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/2014\/09\/13\/saturday-soccer-stats-8\/","title":{"rendered":"Saturday Soccer Stats"},"content":{"rendered":"

These stats are\u00a0brought to your by our friends over at\u00a0Football Form Labs<\/a>. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.<\/em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

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PREVIEW: Arsenal v Man City (Sat, 12:45)<\/span><\/b><\/span><\/div>\n

Arsenal have gone 19 games without defeat at home but this Saturday they face the ultimate test as they host the champions, who have won 10 of their last 16 away games with just one defeat.<\/span>
\n<\/span>
\nIt\u2019s matches like these that have proven to be Arsenal\u2019s undoing in recent years as since 2009\/10 they\u2019ve lost 18 of 30 games against top-four finishers. At home they are much harder to beat of course, with a W6-D4-L5 record compared to W1-D1-L13 on the road but those still aren\u2019t stellar stats.<\/span>
\n<\/span>
\nIn contrast City, if anything, raise their game against the best teams and have won 15 of 24 matches against top-five finishers in the past three seasons including half their 12 away matches (W6-D2-L4). City have led at half-time in each of the last four meetings between these teams but Arsenal have twice fought back to draw and that has been the result in this fixture in three of the past four seasons.<\/span>
\n<\/span>
\nCity certainly look a better bet than Arsenal here but we\u2019d want some cover on the draw and would consider the\u00a0<\/span>Draw No Bet at 1.8<\/b><\/span>. However, it is worth noting that 10 of their 11 away wins since the start of last season have been Win\/Win doubles and Arsenal have conceded first in four of their last six home games, and in two of three matches this season. So the\u00a0<\/span>City\/City double at 4.0<\/b><\/span>\u00a0looks a good bet while the Gunners excellent second-half record suggests it is worth taking some cover on the City\/Draw at 16.0 if you fancy the champions to start fast and lead at half-time.<\/span>
\n<\/span>
\nIn terms of goals the stat that stands out in this game is that all seven of Arsenal\u2019s home matches against the top eight last season finished with fewer than three goals as have all of their last 10 home games against top-six sides. However, both teams have scored in each of City\u2019s last seven trips to top-six finishers and 6\/7 have had at least three goals. Given Arsenal\u2019s main signings since last season have been in attack, with the additions of Alexis Sanchez and Danny Welbeck, and that all three of their matches this term have seen both teams score, we would side with\u00a0<\/span>Over 2.5 Goals at 1.83<\/b><\/span>.<\/span>
\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

PREVIEW: Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid (Sat, 19:00)<\/span><\/b><\/span><\/div>\n

This is the third meeting between these teams this season and the seventh in 2014. Atletico edged the Spanish Super Cup last month and won this fixture in the league last term on their way to the title. However, Real were clear winners in their two Copa Del Rey legs and most importantly won the Champions League final 4-1 after extra-time.<\/span>
\n<\/span>
\nNeither side have been particularly convincing in the opening two games as Real lost 4-2 at Sociedad last time out having taken an early two-goal lead while Atletico failed to beat Vallecano and only narrowly got past new boys Eibar at home.<\/span>
\n<\/span>
\nReal\u2019s goal threat is phenomenal and they\u2019ve only once failed to score at least twice at home since the start of last season. The team that stopped them however is the same side they face here. Atletico will try to frustrate and they have a superb second-half record with seven of their 13 away wins since the start of last season coming after drawing the first half. Therefore, if Real are to win they may need to start well and with that in mind it\u2019s significant that 10 of their last 11 wins have been\u00a0<\/span>Win\/Win doubles and at 2.7<\/b><\/span>\u00a0we prefer that to the home win at 1.7.<\/span>
\n<\/span>
\nOver 2.5 Goals is being given as a coin toss here in the battle between Real\u2019s attack and Atletico\u2019s defence. That is probably fair given the away side\u2019s record against the Big Two in all competitions over the past 12 months. All six of their games against Barcelona last season finished with fewer than three goals as have five of seven games against Real. However, Real\u2019s record of at least three goals in 13 of their last 15 home games and four or more in 10\/15 suggests the value may still lie with the \u2018overs\u2019. Furthermore, five of Real\u2019s last eight home games against top-six finishers have had at least six goals.<\/span>
\n<\/span>
\nOne key component that is hard to quantify here is the impact of the touchline ban for Diego Simeone. An early goal or injury could lead to greater confusion than normal and allow Real to capitalise.\u00a0<\/span>We\u2019d recommend backing Over 2.5 Goals at 1.95<\/b><\/span>\u00a0and it\u2019s probably worth a bit on Over 5.5 at 15.<\/span>0.<\/span>

Please note we’d advise keeping stakes low in the early weeks of a campaign due to the unpredictable nature of this stage of the season.<\/i><\/div>\n

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These stats are\u00a0brought to your by our friends over at\u00a0Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.\u00a0 PREVIEW: Arsenal v Man City (Sat, 12:45) Arsenal have gone 19 games without defeat at home but this Saturday they face the ultimate test as they host the champions, who […]<\/p>\n

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