{"id":10074,"date":"2014-07-13T14:59:09","date_gmt":"2014-07-13T13:59:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.betangel.com\/blog_wp\/?p=10074"},"modified":"2014-07-28T18:57:03","modified_gmt":"2014-07-28T17:57:03","slug":"world-cup-final","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.betfairtradingblog.com\/blog_wp\/2014\/07\/13\/world-cup-final\/","title":{"rendered":"World Cup Final stats"},"content":{"rendered":"

These stats are\u00a0brought to your by our friends over at\u00a0Football Form Labs<\/a>. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.<\/em><\/p>\n

First off, kudos to Football Form Labs for picking the winner of the World Cup. But hold your horses the match hasn’t started yet? Well it doesn’t matter because they nominated both Argentina and Germany, boom! Well done. So here are their thoughts on the final<\/p>\n

Much like when these sides met in the 1990 final we have a superior German team against an Argentine team that will look to the world\u2019s best player for inspiration.<\/p>\n

Four years ago Germany thrashed Argentina 4-0 in the quarter-finals but failed to back up that result in the next round as Spain beat them 1-0. In fact since 1990 there have been nine World Cup matches where one side had won by at least three goals in the previous knockout round and seven have lost their next match in 90 minutes (W1-D1-L7). However, the only three matches in that sample from the semi-finals (this will be the first for a final) saw two narrow defeats to higher ranked nations that won the final and one win on penalties before ultimate success in the final.<\/p>\n

Germany have won 28 of their last 32 competitive matches with just one defeat and since 2006 they are unbeaten in five competitive games against CONMEBOL nations with four wins. Since 1970 the higher ranked side in the Football Form Lab gradings have W4-D4-L3 in World Cup finals but they did lift the trophy seven times including in five of the last six occasions.<\/p>\n

Argentina have reached the final without ever hitting their best form. With Sergio Aguero having been injured and Angel Di Maria out of the tournament they have struggled for creativity and against a German team that should dominate the midfield we could see that continue. They are on a 12 game unbeaten streak but nine of those games have had fewer than three goals as they\u2019ve kept 10 clean sheets and half the matches have been goalless at half-time.<\/p>\n

Argentina are unbeaten in their last 12 matches against UEFA nations but since 1990 they\u2019ve won only one knockout match against European side as they\u2019ve gone W1-D6-L5. Furthermore going back to the 1998 World Cup Argentina have won only one competitive game against teams ranked above them (W1-D5-L6) and you have to go back 10 games to 1990 to find the last time they won a knockout game against a higher ranked side.<\/p>\n

Since 1970 there have been four World Cup Finals where just one side had required extra-time in the semis and they have lost 4-1, 3-1 and 3-0 before Italy managed a draw and triumphed on penalties. The record in WC semi-finals since 1986 of teams in this position is W1-D4-L6 and in the combined 15 match sample there have been seven Draw\/Loss doubles as teams have weakened in the second half. \u00a0In fact 12 of the 15 games have been level at half-time.<\/p>\n

Germany are the better team and they\u2019ve won five of their last six competitive games against top-five ranked sides. Their side is more experienced, fresher, has the best goalkeeper in the world, and while Argentina might be able to frustrate them for a while we can\u2019t see them stopping the Germans becoming the first European side to lift the World Cup on South American soil.<\/p>\n

Quick stats<\/strong><\/p>\n

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