2014
Well that was an interesting year, It always is.
2014 vs 2013
From a broad perspective I’ve just repeated last year again. I’ve ended on almost exactly the same total as 2013 on a like for like market basis (Excluding one offs like the world cup), I’m slightly lower by a small percentage but that’s not bad considering I’ve cut back the amount of markets I’ve traded. This is a concious decision to add some balance back into my life.
Some balance was required because I’ve had many years of ‘going for it’. I thought I was alone in the following thought till I saw a forum post. But when I first started doing this many years ago I feared it will end tomorrow. So you give it what you can and often work some hours that perhaps you shouldn’t! I’m now at the stage that I don’t need to do this anymore, so last year I forced myself to skip quite a few sessions to start enjoying my hard work. As they say, at the end of the day you can’t take it with you! So, overall, a pleasing result on the year.
However, I do get the feeling that I’m living the same year in repeat at the moment. I don’t like that, it’s become a bit ‘samey’. I know when the big days, weeks and months are. When to put my foot down, when to relax. Some may find that comforting, but I find it frustrating. I want to live a different year each year. That’s adds colour to a my life rather than feeling you are on a treadmill. It also invigorates and excites. I’m feeling the need to do that a bit more.
World Cup
Last year brought the World Cup again so I was well prepared this year and that was a big bonus. I nailed for the very first time how this tournament differs from domestic football in a trading context and picked up some key metrics that I can use for major footy competitions in the future. I had to work really hard to pick this up, but it was worth it. You would have seen me post a few meaty screen shots, but even as I was doing this I was learning. You really can’t take anything for granted in this game. When the next world cup comes around I’ll be even more prepared. It was really interesting to learn just how different the market acted during the world cup.
A shrinking market?
One thing I think will happen is more exchange markets will bite the dust in geographic terms. France, Spain, Greece, Germany & Italy to name a few high profile casualties have gone in the past few years. The last has return in a basically rubbish form. I am certain we will see more casualties in 2015.
I think it’s an odd situation. Coming from the technology industry people are used to disruptive change. You invent the next great thing only to be out invented by somebody else. Napster disrupted the music industry only to be replaced by iTunes which is being replaced by Spotify. Uber is disrupting conventional taxi business, but that like betting exchanges, is coming in for some stick. It’s a shame, because unless you are happy with a Horse, spear and mudhut then I suggest disruptive technologies are generally beneficial for mankind. Politics and nationalism are not.
You can stop an invasion of armies, but not a good idea whose time has come.
New API
From a software perspective, we had to completely re-write the core engine on Bet Angel this year, so that was a task and a half. From a purely selfish perspective it was important that we set about this task is a studious manner else I’d personally be out of business when Betfair switched off the old API in November. Thankfully we have an excellent team here and all was delivered ahead of schedule for testing, tweaks on both sides of the party and we were ready in plenty of time. Despite a few issues with the Aussie API over christmas the general API has performed better than expected and opened up a range of new opportunities.
New avenues
One curiosity about this market is that, despite the many advantages of trading, the personal/consumer end of the market still doesn’t feel like it’s ‘got it’. If you witness the rise of the Betfair sportsbook it’s surprising that so few of these new customers appear to be making their way into the exchange. Even fewer, and falling, are finding their way to software. I have commented on that quite a lot on the blog. But ultimately, I suspect that it’s just because of gambling past, people still look at it as a ‘bit of a punt’; rather than a intellectual challenge. Perhaps also this is because features cash out and keep bets, which were invented in the API market, have been repackaged for the ‘entry level’ side of the market. What else could follow in 2015? If odds were available, I’d have a bet that other features will come.
However, over the last year some of the work I have done in this market is coming in for more demand, just not in the public eye. So that’s something I’ll pursue next year in my attempt to do something different. I’ve got a few things bubbling too, some may or may not come off. So that should add some interest for 2015. I’ll let you know if things are headed in the right direction.
2015
It’s always difficult to forecast the future as it hasn’t happened yet! Nothing seems to go in a straight line at any point, so forecasting a year is a tricky business. I won’t really try. What I will try to do is my best with whatever it throws at me.
I tend to have a low expectation each year and therefore don’t have much trouble beating it. The new Betfair API has presented some new opportunities, but it may also close some doors. I’ve been looking at both in the tail end of the year. My investments are growing each year so that will deserve more attention next year unless the sports markets grow by the same amount. The opposite has been true for a while.
I can tell it will be an important year though. It will be Bet Angel’s 10th anniversary and also my 15th year on Betfair. My eldest progeny will turn 18 this year so it’s time to hand on some of that knowledge, if wanted! It scarcely seems real that they were only a toddler when I started this.
So 2015 will definitely be a different year. Given the 18th Birthday I think a proper break is on the cards for the first time since I started doing this. I think that’s only right, so I won’t be able to directly compare years, I’ll have to do it like for like next year. But hell, after a many years of work I think I deserve it.
I’m sure some interesting things will come off next year, hopefully. But outside of that and some diversions during the year, I’d be happy with more of the same please!
Category: General
